HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029469.tif
255 KB
Extraction Summary
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People
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Locations
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Events
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Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Financial report / trade log
File Size:
255 KB
Summary
This document is a financial report detailing various trade expressions and their performance, along with market commentary on central bank policies (Fed, BoE, ECB) and economic outlooks for several regions. It includes both open and closed trades with entry dates, levels, and hit ratios, covering a period from late 2017 to early 2018. The report also highlights political risks in the UK and economic sentiment in Italy and Germany.
Timeline (6 events)
Fed rates expectations for 2019 remain on the low side with just marginally more than 1 hike priced.
BoE not expected to hike as much as markets are pricing for next year.
Risk for equities is a further rise in yields led by higher real rates. S&P was closer to 2720 when 10y real rates were at current levels.
Asymmetry in EURGBP: EUR expected to react positively if Italy/Germany is neutral/positive this weekend and ECB pricing becomes firmer. UK political risk (GBP leg) remains underpriced with increasing odds of early election in 2018.
Equities set up for hawkish BoE hike. Significant unwinds of FTSE longs into meeting. Dovish hike delivered means Long FTSE remains a catch up trade.
Dovish ECB priced in. With a 9x30bn tapering priced, risks skewed to higher core rates and/or tighter spreads.
Key Quotes (4)
"We think Fed rates expectations for 2019 remain on the low side with just marginally more than 1 hike priced."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029469.tif
Quote #1
"We do not think the BoE will hike as much as the Fed next year when markets are pricing marginally more from the BoE."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029469.tif
Quote #2
"The risk for equities is a further rise in yields led by higher real rates. Last time 10y real rates were here S&P was closer to 2720."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029469.tif
Quote #3
"We see asymmetry in EURGBP. We expect EUR to react positively if Italy/Germany is neutral/ positive this weekend and ECB pricing to become firmer. On GBP leg, UK political risk remain underpriced with odds of early election in 2018 increasing"Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029469.tif
Quote #4
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