HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026577.jpg
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Financial report / data table
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1.63 MB
Summary
This document is a J.P. Morgan Global Economic Outlook Summary dated November 9, 2012. It presents a detailed table of Real GDP and Consumer Price forecasts for various regions and countries, including the Americas, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and global markets, for the years 2011-2013 and specific quarters.
People (1)
| Name | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Jan Loeys |
Organizations (2)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan | ||
| J.P.Morgan |
Locations (48)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
|
Asia/Pacific
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Africa/Middle East
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Emerging Europe
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Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (3,547 characters)
Jan Loeys
(1-212) 834-5874
jan.loeys@jpmorgan.com
(1-212) 834-5874
jan.loeys@jpmorgan.com
Global Asset Allocation
The J.P. Morgan View
09 November 2012
The J.P. Morgan View
09 November 2012
J.P.Morgan
Global Economic Outlook Summary
Real GDP
% over a year ago
2011 2012 2013
% over a year ago
2011 2012 2013
Real GDP
% over previous period, saar
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
% over previous period, saar
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
Consumer prices
% over a year ago
4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13
% over a year ago
4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13
The Americas
United States 1.8 2.2 1.7 2.0 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.3 1.9 1.9 1.7
Canada 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.7 1.6 2.4 2.0
Latin America 4.2 2.9 3.9 2.8 2.4 3.9 ↓ 4.5 3.4 3.7 4.0 7.2 6.0 6.0 6.8
Argentina 8.9 2.7 3.6 2.4 -3.2 5.0 10.0 2.0 2.5 2.0 9.6 9.9 10.0 11.0
Brazil 2.7 1.4 4.1 0.5 1.6 4.8 4.6 3.8 4.0 4.3 6.7 5.0 5.5 5.6
Chile 6.0 5.4 4.5 5.1 7.1 3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 3.1 2.5 3.1
Colombia 5.9 4.3 4.5 0.9 6.7 2.8 3.8 4.2 5.5 5.5 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.2
Ecuador 8.0 5.0 4.0 4.2 4.8 3.0 5.5 5.0 3.0 3.0 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.4
Mexico 3.9 3.9 3.6 4.9 3.5 2.1 ↓ 3.5 4.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.1
Peru 6.9 6.0 7.0 8.3 6.0 5.5 6.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 4.5 4.1 3.0 2.8
Uruguay 5.7 3.5 4.0 11.8 2.1 9.0 -9.0 12.0 7.0 9.0 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.2
Venezuela 4.2 5.0 0.0 10.1 0.6 3.5 0.0 -4.0 0.0 3.0 28.5 22.3 18.5 30.2
United States 1.8 2.2 1.7 2.0 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.3 1.9 1.9 1.7
Canada 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.7 1.6 2.4 2.0
Latin America 4.2 2.9 3.9 2.8 2.4 3.9 ↓ 4.5 3.4 3.7 4.0 7.2 6.0 6.0 6.8
Argentina 8.9 2.7 3.6 2.4 -3.2 5.0 10.0 2.0 2.5 2.0 9.6 9.9 10.0 11.0
Brazil 2.7 1.4 4.1 0.5 1.6 4.8 4.6 3.8 4.0 4.3 6.7 5.0 5.5 5.6
Chile 6.0 5.4 4.5 5.1 7.1 3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 3.1 2.5 3.1
Colombia 5.9 4.3 4.5 0.9 6.7 2.8 3.8 4.2 5.5 5.5 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.2
Ecuador 8.0 5.0 4.0 4.2 4.8 3.0 5.5 5.0 3.0 3.0 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.4
Mexico 3.9 3.9 3.6 4.9 3.5 2.1 ↓ 3.5 4.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.1
Peru 6.9 6.0 7.0 8.3 6.0 5.5 6.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 4.5 4.1 3.0 2.8
Uruguay 5.7 3.5 4.0 11.8 2.1 9.0 -9.0 12.0 7.0 9.0 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.2
Venezuela 4.2 5.0 0.0 10.1 0.6 3.5 0.0 -4.0 0.0 3.0 28.5 22.3 18.5 30.2
Asia/Pacific
Japan -0.7 1.7 0.1 5.3 0.7 -3.5 -2.0 1.0 1.6 1.3 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
Australia 2.1 3.5 2.5 5.6 2.6 1.5 1.8 3.8 2.5 1.8 3.1 1.2 1.7 2.7
New Zealand 1.3 2.6 2.9 4.1 2.3 1.5 3.5 3.7 3.3 2.0 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.5
Asia ex Japan 7.4 6.1 6.4 7.2 5.8 5.7 6.2 ↓ 6.3 6.5 6.8 4.9 3.9 3.4 3.9 ↑
China 9.3 7.6 8.0 6.6 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.0 8.2 8.2 4.6 2.9 2.2 3.3
Hong Kong 5.0 1.2 3.2 2.4 -0.4 2.0 2.5 3.5 3.5 5.0 5.7 4.2 3.4 3.4
India 6.5 5.6 6.0 6.1 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.8 6.0 6.8 8.4 10.1 9.8 9.0
Indonesia 6.5 5.7 3.5 4.7 ↑ 6.0 ↓ 4.9 ↑ 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.5 3.9 2.2
Korea 3.6 2.3 3.2 3.5 1.1 0.6 3.5 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.0 2.4 1.9 3.0
Malaysia 5.1 5.0 ↑ 3.7 ↑ 5.8 5.9 2.5 3.5 ↑ 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.2 1.7 1.1 1.2
Philippines 3.8 5.3 3.5 12.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 2.9 2.3 2.3
Singapore 4.9 1.5 ↓ 2.5 ↓ 9.5 ↓ -0.7 -3.9 ↓ 3.2 ↓ 4.9 ↓ 1.6 ↑ 4.1 ↓ 5.5 5.3 4.5 ↑ 4.0 ↑
Taiwan 4.0 1.2 3.4 1.6 2.2 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.8 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.8
Thailand 0.1 5.8 2.7 50.8 13.9 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 4.0 2.5 3.3 3.0
Japan -0.7 1.7 0.1 5.3 0.7 -3.5 -2.0 1.0 1.6 1.3 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
Australia 2.1 3.5 2.5 5.6 2.6 1.5 1.8 3.8 2.5 1.8 3.1 1.2 1.7 2.7
New Zealand 1.3 2.6 2.9 4.1 2.3 1.5 3.5 3.7 3.3 2.0 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.5
Asia ex Japan 7.4 6.1 6.4 7.2 5.8 5.7 6.2 ↓ 6.3 6.5 6.8 4.9 3.9 3.4 3.9 ↑
China 9.3 7.6 8.0 6.6 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.0 8.2 8.2 4.6 2.9 2.2 3.3
Hong Kong 5.0 1.2 3.2 2.4 -0.4 2.0 2.5 3.5 3.5 5.0 5.7 4.2 3.4 3.4
India 6.5 5.6 6.0 6.1 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.8 6.0 6.8 8.4 10.1 9.8 9.0
Indonesia 6.5 5.7 3.5 4.7 ↑ 6.0 ↓ 4.9 ↑ 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.5 3.9 2.2
Korea 3.6 2.3 3.2 3.5 1.1 0.6 3.5 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.0 2.4 1.9 3.0
Malaysia 5.1 5.0 ↑ 3.7 ↑ 5.8 5.9 2.5 3.5 ↑ 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.2 1.7 1.1 1.2
Philippines 3.8 5.3 3.5 12.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 2.9 2.3 2.3
Singapore 4.9 1.5 ↓ 2.5 ↓ 9.5 ↓ -0.7 -3.9 ↓ 3.2 ↓ 4.9 ↓ 1.6 ↑ 4.1 ↓ 5.5 5.3 4.5 ↑ 4.0 ↑
Taiwan 4.0 1.2 3.4 1.6 2.2 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.8 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.8
Thailand 0.1 5.8 2.7 50.8 13.9 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 4.0 2.5 3.3 3.0
Africa/Middle East
Israel 4.6 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.8 4.9 6.1 6.1 2.5 1.6 1.3 1.5
South Africa 3.1 2.2 2.7 2.7 3.2 1.6 -1.3 5.4 3.3 3.6 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.8
Israel 4.6 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.8 4.9 6.1 6.1 2.5 1.6 1.3 1.5
South Africa 3.1 2.2 2.7 2.7 3.2 1.6 -1.3 5.4 3.3 3.6 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.8
Europe
Euro area 1.5 -0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.0 -1.5 0.0 0.8 1.3 2.9 2.5 2.5 1.9
Germany 3.1 1.0 1.1 ↓ 2.0 1.1 1.0 -1.0 ↓ 1.0 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.1 1.8
France 1.7 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 ↓ -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.0 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.3
Italy 0.6 ↑ -2.3 -0.5 ↑ -3.2 ↑ -3.3 -1.5 ↓ -2.0 ↑ -0.5 1.0 ↑ 1.3 ↑ 3.7 3.6 3.2 2.3
Spain 0.4 -1.3 -1.7 ↓ -1.3 -1.7 -1.2 -2.5 -3.0 ↓ 0.0 ↓ 0.0 ↓ 2.7 1.9 3.4 2.9
United Kingdom 0.9 0.0 1.8 -1.2 -1.5 4.1 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 4.6 2.8 2.6 2.5
Emerging Europe 4.8 2.6 2.6 ↓ 2.4 1.3 0.4 ↓ 1.8 ↓ 2.7 ↓ 2.4 ↓ 3.7 ↓ 6.4 5.0 6.0 ↓ 6.3 ↑
Bulgaria 1.7 1.0 1.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
Czech Republic 1.7 -1.1 0.9 -3.1 -0.8 -1.2 -1.3 2.1 1.0 4.3 2.4 3.4 2.9 2.4
Hungary 1.6 -1.2 0.5 -3.5 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 1.0 1.5 1.8 4.1 5.5 5.8 4.7
Poland 4.3 2.3 1.6 ↓ 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.5 ↓ 1.3 ↓ 2.3 ↓ 3.0 ↓ 4.6 4.0 3.1 2.5
Romania 2.5 0.0 0.8 0.5 1.9 -2.4 -1.2 1.2 -0.4 3.2 3.4 1.9 4.7 6.4
Russia 4.3 3.6 3.0 3.7 1.5 1.0 ↓ 3.0 3.5 3.0 4.0 6.7 3.8 6.8 ↑ 7.4
Turkey 8.5 2.8 3.7 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9.2 9.4 7.3 ↓ 7.5 ↑
Euro area 1.5 -0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.0 -1.5 0.0 0.8 1.3 2.9 2.5 2.5 1.9
Germany 3.1 1.0 1.1 ↓ 2.0 1.1 1.0 -1.0 ↓ 1.0 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.1 1.8
France 1.7 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 ↓ -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.0 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.3
Italy 0.6 ↑ -2.3 -0.5 ↑ -3.2 ↑ -3.3 -1.5 ↓ -2.0 ↑ -0.5 1.0 ↑ 1.3 ↑ 3.7 3.6 3.2 2.3
Spain 0.4 -1.3 -1.7 ↓ -1.3 -1.7 -1.2 -2.5 -3.0 ↓ 0.0 ↓ 0.0 ↓ 2.7 1.9 3.4 2.9
United Kingdom 0.9 0.0 1.8 -1.2 -1.5 4.1 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 4.6 2.8 2.6 2.5
Emerging Europe 4.8 2.6 2.6 ↓ 2.4 1.3 0.4 ↓ 1.8 ↓ 2.7 ↓ 2.4 ↓ 3.7 ↓ 6.4 5.0 6.0 ↓ 6.3 ↑
Bulgaria 1.7 1.0 1.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
Czech Republic 1.7 -1.1 0.9 -3.1 -0.8 -1.2 -1.3 2.1 1.0 4.3 2.4 3.4 2.9 2.4
Hungary 1.6 -1.2 0.5 -3.5 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 1.0 1.5 1.8 4.1 5.5 5.8 4.7
Poland 4.3 2.3 1.6 ↓ 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.5 ↓ 1.3 ↓ 2.3 ↓ 3.0 ↓ 4.6 4.0 3.1 2.5
Romania 2.5 0.0 0.8 0.5 1.9 -2.4 -1.2 1.2 -0.4 3.2 3.4 1.9 4.7 6.4
Russia 4.3 3.6 3.0 3.7 1.5 1.0 ↓ 3.0 3.5 3.0 4.0 6.7 3.8 6.8 ↑ 7.4
Turkey 8.5 2.8 3.7 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9.2 9.4 7.3 ↓ 7.5 ↑
Global 3.0 2.4 2.5 3.0 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Developed markets 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.7 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.7 1.8 1.9 1.6
Emerging markets 6.1 4.7 5.1 5.4 4.3 4.5 ↓ 5.0 ↓ 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.7 4.6 4.4 5.0 ↑
Source: J.P. Morgan
Developed markets 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.7 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.7 1.8 1.9 1.6
Emerging markets 6.1 4.7 5.1 5.4 4.3 4.5 ↓ 5.0 ↓ 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.7 4.6 4.4 5.0 ↑
Source: J.P. Morgan
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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026577
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