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exchanged rising economic and political inequality for overall
prosperity. We have simply reached a point where this rising inequality is
no longer sustainable in democracies. This is not too different from what
Beijing has been struggling with – to slow down the headline economic
growth rate in exchange for more balance in various parts of the economy, in
order to allow its development to be more sustainable. The parallels in the
West seem quite clear to me. Fighting against this shift in the West, as most
mainstream media seem to be doing, is tantamount to those in China who are
fighting against the economic slowdown. (1) TPP is effectively dead, even
though there are some who are urging that TPP goes ahead without the
US. But I think multilateral trade pacts are in jeopardy. The Trump
Administration still wants to have trade arrangements, but they will be
bilateral and done with countries deemed friendly to the US. (2) The UK is
in a great position to deal with the Trump Administration because all the UK
needs is a bilateral trade arrangement that won’t take as long to work out,
compared to a multilateral trade arrangement. The UK just went from the
‘back of the queue’ (which was an insulting declaration by President Obama,
conspicuously using the word ‘queue’ to make sure the Brits understood
him) to the ‘front of the line.’ (3) China was never a part of the TPP
discussions. In fact, TPP was designed from day one to marginalise China,
to replace the current trade arrangement based on WTO rules to something
that puts China at a disadvantage. This is why Beijing is not unhappy with
the Trump Administration’s desire to terminate the TPP discussions. (4)
‘America First’ does not only mean ‘world second,’ that the US will take
actions to benefit the US even if these policies come at the expense of the
rest of the world. It also means that policies will be aimed at addressing the
inequality and inequity in the US, even if it means that the overall effects on
the US may be negative. (5) In sum, I don’t think trade globalisation will
reverse. But it will slow down dramatically and be substituted with a
different web of bilateral arrangements. I think this is a positive
development, as the previous model of global growth was unsustainable,
even if it generated the biggest aggregate prosperity for the world. (6) The
next US Treasury Secretary will likely be instructed by President Trump to
label China as a currency manipulator. While this would be a verdict
without basis, in my view, such a finding could be used as an excuse to
escalate the talks of protectionism.

Some musings… (1) President Obama just awarded his last round of
Presidential Medals of Freedom (America’s highest civilian honour) to
Michael Jordan, Ellen DeGeneres, Robert de Niro, and others. Many of
these award recipients were vocal critics of Mr Trump. My views on
politics really don’t matter… But for what it is worth, the reason why I have
been more vocal than I should have been about Brexit and the US Elections
is related to my own personal experience. I have witnessed how a previous
harmonious society could very quickly degenerate into a permanent state of

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