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actual, on-the-ground improvements. This would not necessarily make
Egypt worse off, but it could further weaken the economy as revenue from
key industries, such as tourism, continues to decline. It would not improve
conditions either, as improvements, unfortunately, take longer that the
voting public generally likes. The potential upshot of this option is that,
hopefully, over time, mass action would become more and more cohesive
and leaders start to emerge from the morass. This would bring developed
political parties into Egypt’s political system and potentially, leaders from
outside the military and the elite as well. This, however, will remain only a
temporary option. Revolutions, or even mass action, are difficult to
maintain over time. Moreover, if some improvements, particularly
economic improvements, do occur, the majority of the country will
acquiesce to a nondemocratic government. The best example of this is the
Chinese government, which has managed economic growth without any
accompanying political liberalization. Eventually, either a government
will improve conditions for the average Egyptian, or it will become so
repressive that mass action ceases to be a viable option. The third option is
a total crackdown on any and all political movements and the return of a
repressive and autocratic government. The impetus behind this path is the
idea that establishing stability is the first and foremost priority of the
government. If you establish stability, the rest will follow. Or, if the
government is truly cynical, it simply does not care what happens as long
as the ruler and his or her cronies are taken care of. Right now, it looks as
though Egypt has chosen to go with option three, the return to repression
under military rule. The first step for any autocracy is to get a firm grip on
the political process, weeding out the opposition. This is precisely what
has been occurring. Massive repression of the Muslim Brotherhood is the
most obvious example of this process. While there are some legitimate
security concerns regarding the Muslim Brotherhood ties to ongoing
violence, banning the entire organization and labeling them all as terrorists
is like using a sledgehammer on a nail—overkill and likely to create a
mess. It does, however, have the benefit of getting the only meaningful
political party out of the current political scene and that is a key step in
political consolidation. Other examples of consolidation abound, including

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