HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031841.jpg
2.35 MB
Extraction Summary
4
People
2
Organizations
6
Locations
0
Events
2
Relationships
3
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Article / political commentary / report excerpt
File Size:
2.35 MB
Summary
This document appears to be page 8 of a larger report or collection (marked HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031841). It contains a geopolitical analysis written by Hamid Alkifaey regarding the stability of the Middle East, specifically focusing on relations between Israel, Egypt, and Syria. The text argues that war is unlikely in the near future but warns that small Islamic groups could hijack power from moderates if the free world does not actively support new democracies. The page concludes with a biographical note about the author.
People (4)
| Name | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Hamid Alkifaey | Author / Journalist |
Writer of the text; first government spokesman in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq; founder-leader of the Movement for Democr...
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| Bashar Assad | Syrian President |
Mentioned regarding Syria's stance on war and peace treaties with Israel.
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| Hafez al-Assad | Former Syrian President |
Referred to as "his father before him" in relation to Bashar Assad.
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| Saddam Hussein | Former Iraqi President |
Mentioned in the author's bio to establish a timeline (post-Saddam Iraq).
|
Organizations (2)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Movement for Democratic Society |
Organization founded by the author, Hamid Alkifaey.
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| University of Exeter |
Institution in the U.K. where the author is researching democratization.
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Locations (6)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
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Mentioned as having an enduring peace treaty.
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Subject of geopolitical analysis regarding war and peace with Israel.
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Mentioned in the context of peace treaties and potential war with neighbors.
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Mentioned in the author's bio.
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Region discussed regarding democracy and stability.
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Location of the University of Exeter.
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Relationships (2)
Alkifaey is the founder-leader of the Movement for Democratic Society.
Text refers to 'Bashar Assad, and his father before him'.
Key Quotes (3)
"The regime of Bashar Assad, and his father before him, would have never started a war with Israel unilaterally."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031841.jpg
Quote #1
"Small Islamic groups, organized and armed with religious zeal, could hijack power from the moderates."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031841.jpg
Quote #2
"A proactive stance is needed to nurture democracy and help moderate forces organize themselves in order to govern the region"Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031841.jpg
Quote #3
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (1,859 characters)
8
reasonable and realistic leaders should have nothing to fear from
Egypt, with which it has an enduring peace treaty.
The situation with Syria may not be exactly the same, however,
especially when the two countries are still officially in a state of war.
The regime of Bashar Assad, and his father before him, would have
never started a war with Israel unilaterally. It also suited them not to
have a peace treaty. Any new Syrian leader is not likely (for a
considerable period of time) to initiate a move toward a peace
agreement with Israel as this will weaken his position domestically.
Nor will he launch a war, however, since such a war will not result in
victory. A democratic regime in Syria, or any other Arab country for
that matter, will need a good 10 years to build democratic institutions
and stabilize a modern market economy needed in any democracy.
So, war won’t be on the agenda in the near future.
Prosperity increases the public’s stake in a stable economy, and this
will make people want to compromise to make their country more
prosperous and stable. However, everything will depend on how
prepared the free world is to help new democracies in the Middle
East survive and prosper. Small Islamic groups, organized and armed
with religious zeal, could hijack power from the moderates. This
would lead to a disaster for the whole region. Therefore, it is
imperative for the free world, Israel included, not to leave matters to
chance. A proactive stance is needed to nurture democracy and help
moderate forces organize themselves in order to govern the region
Egypt, with which it has an enduring peace treaty.
The situation with Syria may not be exactly the same, however,
especially when the two countries are still officially in a state of war.
The regime of Bashar Assad, and his father before him, would have
never started a war with Israel unilaterally. It also suited them not to
have a peace treaty. Any new Syrian leader is not likely (for a
considerable period of time) to initiate a move toward a peace
agreement with Israel as this will weaken his position domestically.
Nor will he launch a war, however, since such a war will not result in
victory. A democratic regime in Syria, or any other Arab country for
that matter, will need a good 10 years to build democratic institutions
and stabilize a modern market economy needed in any democracy.
So, war won’t be on the agenda in the near future.
Prosperity increases the public’s stake in a stable economy, and this
will make people want to compromise to make their country more
prosperous and stable. However, everything will depend on how
prepared the free world is to help new democracies in the Middle
East survive and prosper. Small Islamic groups, organized and armed
with religious zeal, could hijack power from the moderates. This
would lead to a disaster for the whole region. Therefore, it is
imperative for the free world, Israel included, not to leave matters to
chance. A proactive stance is needed to nurture democracy and help
moderate forces organize themselves in order to govern the region
Hamid Alkifaey is a writer and journalist. He was the first government
spokesman in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq and is founder-leader of the
Movement for Democratic Society. Currently he is researching
democratization at the University of Exeter in the U.K.
spokesman in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq and is founder-leader of the
Movement for Democratic Society. Currently he is researching
democratization at the University of Exeter in the U.K.
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031841
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