HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026912.jpg
1.15 MB
Extraction Summary
0
People
4
Organizations
1
Locations
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Events
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Relationships
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Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Financial analysis report / economic research page
File Size:
1.15 MB
Summary
This document is a page from a financial strategy report (page 4) containing economic data charts tracking Average Hourly Earnings and Core Inflation (PCE and CPI) from 1990 to 2018. The text analyzes the relationship between rising interest rates, equity markets, and US GDP growth. The document bears a 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT' Bates stamp, indicating it was part of a document production for a congressional investigation, though no specific individuals (like Epstein) are named on this specific page.
Organizations (4)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Investment Strategy Group |
Cited as the source for the charts and analysis.
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| Haver |
Cited as a source for the charts (Haver Analytics).
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|
| BLS |
Bureau of Labor Statistics, mentioned in the note regarding hourly earnings data.
|
|
| House Oversight Committee |
Implied by the Bates stamp 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT'.
|
Locations (1)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
|
Implied by references to 'US GDP', 'BLS', and 'Treasury yield'.
|
Key Quotes (3)
"Of course, the recent backup in interest rates is providing equity investors with another source of angst."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026912.jpg
Quote #1
"Yet our work suggests there are several reasons why rates could continue to rise before becoming a material headwind for stocks."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026912.jpg
Quote #2
"First, the 4% trend growth rate of nominal US GDP— reflecting 2% real growth and 2% inflation—remains comfortably above the 10-year Treasury yield of"Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026912.jpg
Quote #3
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (1,206 characters)
2. Average Hourly Earnings
5% —Average Hourly Earnings (%YoY)
- - Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Empoyees (%YoY)
- - Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Empoyees (%YoY)
4%
3%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2%
1%
0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Note: Average hourly earnings is available for the private sector starting in 2006 and is released in the monthly employment report. The BLS hourly earnings data for production and nonsupervisory employees, ~80% of the private sector, is available back to 1964.
Source: Investment Strategy Group, Haver.
Source: Investment Strategy Group, Haver.
3. Measures of Core Inflation: Core PCE and Core CPI
6% —Core PCE YoY - - Core CPI YoY
5%
4%
3%
2.2%
2.0%
2.0%
2%
1%
0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Source: Investment Strategy Group, Haver.
Of course, the recent backup in interest rates is providing equity investors with another source of angst. Yet our work suggests there are several reasons why rates could continue to rise before becoming a material headwind for stocks. First, the 4% trend growth rate of nominal US GDP— reflecting 2% real growth and 2% inflation—remains comfortably above the 10-year Treasury yield of
4
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026912
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