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Extraction Summary
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People
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Organizations
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Locations
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Document Information
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Economic research report
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Summary
This document is a Bank of America Merrill Lynch economic report from November 18, 2016, titled 'Japan Economics Viewpoint'. It analyzes Japan's economy, concluding that the country is emerging from a zero-growth period due to a recovery in global manufacturing and stronger exports. Although the document footer includes 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014411', the content is exclusively a macroeconomic analysis of Japan and contains no information related to Jeffrey Epstein, his associates, or any related activities.
Organizations (5)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of America Merrill Lynch |
Publisher of the report and source for the data analysis.
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| OECD |
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Its leading indicator is cited as signaling global growth.
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| METI |
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan). Listed as a data source for charts.
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| BoJ |
Bank of Japan. Listed as a data source for charts.
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| HOUSE_OVERSIGHT |
Mentioned in the document footer 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014411', suggesting it was collected as evidence by a House Oversig...
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Timeline (3 events)
2017 (through Q3)
Forecasted period for a sustained up-cycle in global exports, benefiting Japan.
Global
8 December 2016
Japan is scheduled to switch to the SNA2008 methodology for GDP reporting, starting with the revised Q3 CY16 GDP release.
Japan
Locations (5)
| Location | Context |
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The primary subject of the economic analysis.
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A key destination for Japanese exports showing improved demand.
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A destination for Japanese exports where demand is expected to follow Europe's improvement.
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A destination for Japanese exports where demand is expected to follow Europe's improvement, with modest acceleration.
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North America, shown as a destination for Japan's real exports in Chart 5.
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Key Quotes (3)
"The Q3 CY16 GDP print confirms our view that Japan has at last emerged from the de facto zero-growth trap of the past few years."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014411.jpg
Quote #1
"We expect the current up-cycle in global exports to be sustained through Q3 CY17 – possibly longer depending on developments in the US (more on this later)."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014411.jpg
Quote #2
"The combination of stronger external demand and a weaker currency should shore up business confidence, especially among manufacturers, and lay the foundations of Japan's recovery."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014411.jpg
Quote #3
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (2,668 characters)
Escape from zero
The Q3 CY16 GDP print confirms our view that Japan has at last emerged from the de facto zero-growth trap of the past few years. Growth accelerated to an above-consensus 2.2% q-o-q saar, after a 0.7% rise in Q2 CY16 and 2.1% rise in Q1 CY16. We expect a moderation in Q4 CY16, but underlying growth will remain firmly in the 1.0-1.5% range. We are currently tracking CY2016 growth of 0.7%, a modest improvement from 0.6% in CY2015, though the switch to a new GDP standard¹ next month raises uncertainty around our forecasts.
Upturn in exports to be sustained through Q3 CY17
The recent recovery has been driven by a fading consumption tax shock and stronger exports. The downturn in the global industrial cycle in 2014-16 hurt Japan, but manufacturing activity bottomed out early this year and is now modestly expanding (Chart 2). The OECD leading indicator continues to signal a synchronized pick-up in global growth (Chart 3). The domestic inventory cycle also points to production gains ahead (Chart 4). For Japanese exporters, the improvement in demand has been most visible for Europe (Chart 5). US and Chinese demand will likely follow, though the mainland's structural shift to services implies only a modest acceleration. We expect the current up-cycle in global exports to be sustained through Q3 CY17 – possibly longer depending on developments in the US (more on this later). The combination of stronger external demand and a weaker currency should shore up business confidence, especially among manufacturers, and lay the foundations of Japan's recovery.
Chart 2: Industrial activity has bottomed out
Index 2010=100 3mma sa
110
105
100
95
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
IP
Real exports
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, METI, BoJ
Index 2010=100 3mma sa
110
105
100
95
90
85
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
IP
Real exports
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, METI, BoJ
Chart 3: OECD leading indicator points to modest global expansion
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
OECD global leading indicator, %YoY (LHS)
Japan real exports, %YoY (RHS)
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, OECD, BoJ
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
OECD global leading indicator, %YoY (LHS)
Japan real exports, %YoY (RHS)
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, OECD, BoJ
Chart 4: The shipment-inventory cycle points to production gains ahead
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Shipments %YoY
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Sep 2016
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Mar 2013
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Inventories %YoY
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, METI
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Shipments %YoY
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Inventories %YoY
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, METI
Chart 5: Japan's real exports by destination, 3mma %YoY
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
N. America
EU
China
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, BoJ
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
N. America
EU
China
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, BoJ
¹ Japan will switch to SNA2008 methodology, starting with the release of revised Q3 CY16 GDP due 8 December 2016.
2 Japan Economics Viewpoint | 18 November 2016
Bank of America
Merrill Lynch
Merrill Lynch
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014411
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