HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024867.jpg
1.29 MB
Extraction Summary
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People
3
Organizations
1
Locations
0
Events
1
Relationships
2
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Financial research report / market analysis
File Size:
1.29 MB
Summary
A Cowen 'Collaborative Insights' financial report page dated February 25, 2019, analyzing the U.S. market for CBD vapor and e-cigarettes. The document projects significant growth in the sector, forecasting CBD vape revenues to reach $360 million by 2020 and comparing this to JUUL's market share. The page includes three figures (95, 96, 97) illustrating sales forecasts and scenario analysis, and bears a House Oversight Committee Bates stamp.
People (1)
| Name | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Cella | Recipient/Employee |
Email address michael.cella@cowen.com appears in the sidebar watermark indicating the report is intended for him.
|
Organizations (3)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Cowen |
Financial services firm producing the report (Cowen and Company).
|
|
| JUUL |
E-cigarette company used as a benchmark for market share comparison.
|
|
| House Oversight Committee |
Implied by the Bates stamp 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT'.
|
Locations (1)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
|
Market location for the sales data (U.S. CBD Vape Sales, U.S. E-Cigarette Sales).
|
Relationships (1)
Email address michael.cella@cowen.com in watermark.
Key Quotes (2)
"If vapor generates $360 mm in revenues in 2020, that would result in an implied market share of 3.2%, roughly 10% of JUUL's current U.S. market share."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024867.jpg
Quote #1
"We benchmark the market opportunity against the U.S. e-cigarette category, which we are forecasting to grow ~32% in 2019 and ~27% in 2020, resulting in revenues surpassing $11 bn in 2020."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024867.jpg
Quote #2
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (2,050 characters)
COWEN
COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS
February 25, 2019
COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS
February 25, 2019
Vapor
While vapor remains the major market share gainer across adult use cannabis, CBD only offerings are much smaller, but represent a solid growth segment. Over the next two years, we believe the category can generate over $350 mm in revenues, with upside if consumer adoption of this particular form factor resembles the adult use market for THC, or the growing popularity of nicotine vapor. We benchmark the market opportunity against the U.S. e-cigarette category, which we are forecasting to grow ~32% in 2019 and ~27% in 2020, resulting in revenues surpassing $11 bn in 2020. In addition to e-commerce, we believe there will be distribution channel overlap with e-cigs, with a focus on vape shops and convenience stores (as opposed to just dispensaries). If vapor generates $360 mm in revenues in 2020, that would result in an implied market share of 3.2%, roughly 10% of JUUL's current U.S. market share.
[Sidebar Watermark text]: This report is intended for michael.cella@cowen.com. Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited.
Figure 95 Vapor Will Be Smaller, But Can Grow To Almost $400 MM
U.S. CBD Vape Sales ($ in mm)
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
$160
$150
$100
$40
$50
$0
2018
2019E
2020E
Source: Cowen and Company
U.S. CBD Vape Sales ($ in mm)
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
$160
$150
$100
$40
$50
$0
2018
2019E
2020E
Source: Cowen and Company
Figure 96 Our E-Cig Model Assumes Revenues Of ~$11 BN By 2020
U.S. E-Cigarette Sales ($ in bn)
$12.0
$11.1
$10.0
$8.7
$8.0
$6.6
$6.0
$4.0
$3.6
$2.0
$0.0
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
Source: Cowen and Company
U.S. E-Cigarette Sales ($ in bn)
$12.0
$11.1
$10.0
$8.7
$8.0
$6.6
$6.0
$4.0
$3.6
$2.0
$0.0
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
Source: Cowen and Company
The below scenario analysis shows that every 50 bps of market share capture is worth ~$56 mm in revenues. While we are forecasting CBD vape to be ~3% of the market, we believe there is upside to these numbers and that strong consumer adoption can result in revenues surpassing $500 mm.
Figure 97 $360 MM In Revenue Implies A ~3% Share Of The Category
2020 Market Share Scenario Analysis
Market Share 1.7% 2.2% 2.7% 3.2% 3.7% 4.2% 4.7%
Absolute Sales ($ in mm) $193 $249 $304 $360 $416 $471 $527
Source: Cowen and Company
2020 Market Share Scenario Analysis
Market Share 1.7% 2.2% 2.7% 3.2% 3.7% 4.2% 4.7%
Absolute Sales ($ in mm) $193 $249 $304 $360 $416 $471 $527
Source: Cowen and Company
COWEN.COM
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