HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029722.jpg

American policymakers may counter that Iran would never be foolish enough to threaten or use nuclear weapons against the United States, given its robust nuclear deterrence posture. But the threat or use of nuclear weapons might not look so foolish from Iran's perspective. One of the great strategic lessons drawn from the long history of conflict in the Middle East is this: Do not go to war without nuclear weapons, as Saddam Hussein did when he invaded Kuwait. The corollary is: Do not allow the United States to methodically build-up forces in the Gulf prior to invading, as Saddam did both in the run-up to the 1991 re-conquest of Kuwait and in 2003, before the drive to topple the regime in Baghdad.
Drawing upon these lessons, Iran will likely do everything in its power to deny the United States the ability to surge conventional forces into the region -- and that might include threatening to target U.S. forces with nuclear weapons. Iran might accept the risk that preemptive use of nuclear weapons could bring on American nuclear retaliation, because failure to do so would mean certain destruction for the regime. The United States would be able to build-up conventional forces in the region and oust Iran's leaders just as it did in Baghdad.
This line of strategic reasoning runs counter to conventional wisdom in the

HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029722