HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_022346.jpg
1.57 MB
Extraction Summary
9
People
3
Organizations
7
Locations
3
Events
5
Relationships
4
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Email
File Size:
1.57 MB
Summary
This document is an email chain from March 2014 where financial advisors, likely from Deutsche Bank (DB), including Nav Gupta, Vinit Sahni, and Paul Morris, provide Jeffrey Epstein with detailed analysis and trading strategies for oil options. The advice is based on geopolitical events, specifically the anticipated outcome of the Crimea referendum and potential sanctions against Russia. The advisors propose specific trades on WTI calls and discuss market risks.
People (9)
| Name | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Epstein | Client/Recipient |
Recipient of an email chain from his financial advisors regarding oil options trading strategies. His email is jeevac...
|
| Paul Morris | Sender/Financial Advisor |
Sent the final email in the chain to Jeffrey Epstein. Appears to be a senior contact for Epstein, likely at Deutsche ...
|
| Vinit Sahni | Financial Advisor |
Forwarded Nav Gupta's analysis to Jeffrey Epstein and Paul Morris. Also mentioned as having been on a phone call with...
|
| Nav Gupta | Financial Advisor/Analyst |
Authored the original email with detailed geopolitical and market analysis for oil options trading. Sent the analysis...
|
| Tazia Smith | Colleague |
CC'd on the original email from Nav Gupta, indicating she is part of the advisory team.
|
| Kerry | Politician (likely John Kerry) |
Mentioned in the context of a meeting with Lavrov regarding the Crimea situation.
|
| Lavrov | Politician (likely Sergey Lavrov) |
Mentioned in the context of a meeting with Kerry regarding the Crimea situation.
|
| Obama | Politician (likely Barack Obama) |
Mentioned in the context of a potential 5m (million barrel) release from the 696m (million barrel) Strategic Petroleu...
|
| Merkel | Politician (likely Angela Merkel) |
Mentioned in relation to Obama's actions, implying she is a key figure in the European response.
|
Organizations (3)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| DB |
Mentioned as having 'stopped marketmaking OTC oil options'. The CC'd email addresses for Paul Morris and Vinit Sahni ...
|
|
| Bloomberg |
Mentioned as a platform where live strikes and bid/ask prices for oil commodities can be found ('CL1 <comdty> OMON on...
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|
| g8 |
Mentioned as a potential source of sanctions against Russia, specifically 'g8 expulsion'.
|
Timeline (3 events)
c. March 2014 (Weekend)
A referendum in Crimea is expected to result in a 'yes' vote to join Russia.
Crimea
Locations (7)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
|
Central to the geopolitical analysis, with a referendum expected to result in a 'yes' vote.
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Subject of potential sanctions and a key player in the geopolitical scenario affecting oil prices.
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Mentioned in the context of cross-asset correlations ('outside of the US').
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Mentioned in reference to '8 small European and Baltic countries' dependent on Russian gas and 'European equities'.
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Baltic countries
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Mentioned as being highly dependent on Russian gas (over 70%).
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Mentioned as receiving 30% of its gas from Russia.
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Mentioned as part of the EM FX (Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange) analysis.
|
Relationships (5)
Paul Morris emails Jeffrey Epstein with financial advice and to arrange a call.
Vinit Sahni forwards financial analysis to Jeffrey Epstein.
Nav Gupta sent an email with detailed trading strategies directly to Jeffrey Epstein's email address.
They are on the same email chain advising a client (Jeffrey Epstein) and their email addresses are associated with 'db'.
Nav Gupta mentions being on the phone with Vinit Sahni, and they are both involved in advising Jeffrey Epstein.
Key Quotes (4)
"I do want to talk to u about this, they spent too much thinking about options here, let me know when u have couple minutes."Source
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Quote #1
"DB stopped marketmaking OTC oil options - for short dated I'd go for exch traded - better liquidity and lower transaction costs in and out."Source
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Quote #2
"My central scenario - Kerry Lavrov meeting Friday will be a bust and the Crimea referendum this weekend will result in "yes" given the 59pct ethic Russian makeup."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_022346.jpg
Quote #3
"I'm worried there is a 30-40pct(?) chance of a hard risk off move in markets in first half of next week - more focused on European equities, copper, EM FX (Turkey, ZAR, Ruble etc) than SPX. In that scenario oil is way up."Source
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Quote #4
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (2,537 characters)
From: Paul Morris [REDACTED]
Sent: 3/14/2014 10:27:39 PM
To: Jeffrey Epstein [jeevacation@gmail.com]
Subject: Re: Oil options [C]
Attachments: graycol.gif
Sent: 3/14/2014 10:27:39 PM
To: Jeffrey Epstein [jeevacation@gmail.com]
Subject: Re: Oil options [C]
Attachments: graycol.gif
Importance: High
Classification: Confidential
I do want to talk to u about this, they spent too much thinking about options here, let me know when u have couple minutes.
▼ Vinit Sahni
---- Original Message ----
From: Vinit Sahni
Sent: 03/13/2014 09:47 PM EDT
To: jeevacation@gmail.com
Cc: Paul Morris
Subject: Fw: Oil options
Classification: External Communication
From: Vinit Sahni
Sent: 03/13/2014 09:47 PM EDT
To: jeevacation@gmail.com
Cc: Paul Morris
Subject: Fw: Oil options
Classification: External Communication
Jeffrey - apologise if this long to execute next time we'll be much quicker.
▼ Nav Gupta
---- Original Message ----
From: Nav Gupta
Sent: 03/12/2014 09:35 PM GDT
To: "jeevacation@gmail.com"
Cc: Tazia Smith; Paul Morris/db/[REDACTED]; Vinit Sahni/db/[REDACTED]
Subject: Oil options
From: Nav Gupta
Sent: 03/12/2014 09:35 PM GDT
To: "jeevacation@gmail.com"
Cc: Tazia Smith; Paul Morris/db/[REDACTED]; Vinit Sahni/db/[REDACTED]
Subject: Oil options
Jeffrey
Just got off the phone with Vinit.
DB stopped marketmaking OTC oil options - for short dated I'd go for exch traded - better liquidity and lower transaction costs in and out.
DB stopped marketmaking OTC oil options - for short dated I'd go for exch traded - better liquidity and lower transaction costs in and out.
My central scenario - Kerry Lavrov meeting Friday will be a bust and the Crimea referendum this weekend will result in "yes" given the 59pct ethic Russian makeup. Sunday/ Monday sanction rhetoric from ranging from g8 expulsion to Iran-style bank embargo is raised a notch. Russia follows with more threats of counter-sanctions. My sense is the Obama 5m of 696m SPR release is to show Merkel and co he will step in. He needs to because there are 8 small European and Baltic countries that rec 70%+ of their gas from Russia. Germany gets 30%.
Cross asset correlations outside of the US are increasing past few days - eg copper and the Turkish lira hourly charts are on top of each other past 4 days. I'm worried there is a 30-40pct(?) chance of a hard risk off move in markets in first half of next week - more focused on European equities, copper, EM FX (Turkey, ZAR, Ruble etc) than SPX. In that scenario oil is way up.
Exchange WTI calls - there are 2 options (as of 3pm est):
5day expiry 17march 2014 underlying clj4 97.92
and
35d expiry 16april2014 underlying clk4 97.59
and
35d expiry 16april2014 underlying clk4 97.59
** The 5 day options are a bit short - one possibility is sell a 3usd out of the money put (95.5 strike) for 20cents and buy a 2usd OTM 100 call for 25. Net pay 5cents. But 5d is a bit short for me.
**For 35d expiry You could look at selling 91.50 (6usd OTM put) for 56cents and buying 103c (5.5usd OTM) for 58cents or the 102c (4.5usd OTM) for 76cents.
CL1 OMON on Bloomberg has live strikes and bid/ask.
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_022346
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