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2.22 MB
Extraction Summary
7
People
2
Organizations
6
Locations
2
Events
2
Relationships
6
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Email thread
File Size:
2.22 MB
Summary
An email thread from November 14, 2016, in which Landon Thomas Jr. forwards a detailed financial market analysis to Jeffrey Epstein. The analysis, originally authored by Ozan Tarman, discusses the 'London hedge fund crowd's' reaction to the recent US election victory of Donald Trump, noting that while many bet on Hillary Clinton, they profited from market movements that aligned with 'Trump trades.' The report covers trends in Emerging Markets, interest rates, and European political risks involving Matteo Renzi and Marine Le Pen.
People (7)
| Name | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Landon Thomas Jr. | Sender |
Forwarding financial market analysis to Epstein.
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| Jeffrey Epstein | Recipient |
Received the email at jeevacation@gmail.com.
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| Ozan Tarman | Original Sender |
Author of the financial analysis regarding European Multi Asset Coverage.
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| HRC | Politician |
Hillary Rodham Clinton, mentioned in context of election betting/market outcomes.
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| Trump | Politician |
Donald Trump, mentioned in context of 'Trump Reflation Theme' and market narratives.
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| Renzi | Politician |
Matteo Renzi, mentioned in context of the Italy referendum anxiety.
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| Le Pen | Politician |
Marine Le Pen, mentioned as 'the bigger elephant in the room' regarding European stability.
|
Organizations (2)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| London hedge fund crowd |
Source of the thinking/analysis provided in the email.
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|
| House Oversight Committee |
Document bears the stamp HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_023635.
|
Locations (6)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
|
Location of the hedge fund crowd providing the analysis.
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|
|
Subject of market analysis.
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Mentioned regarding referendum.
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Mentioned regarding FX (foreign exchange) weakness.
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Mentioned regarding copper/infrastructure rally.
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Mentioned regarding price action and trade weights.
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Relationships (2)
Thomas forwards high-level financial market intelligence to Epstein's personal email.
Thomas receives and forwards Tarman's market analysis.
Key Quotes (6)
"The latest thinking from London hedge fund crowd"Source
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Quote #1
"Absolute majority bet on HRC to win, but majority still made good money because Hillary bets worked as Trump trades."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_023635.jpg
Quote #2
"Wider, steeper core rates, stronger USD, weaker EM is the Rage."Source
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Quote #3
"The last one, EM, is the big loser out of Trump Reflation Theme."Source
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Quote #4
"If she [Le Pen] wins in May, Europe as we know it may really shake.."Source
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Quote #5
"Real Money is on the ropes, caught long Fixed Income/duration/carry and cannot play defense fearing Outflows."Source
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Quote #6
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (3,023 characters)
From: Thomas Jr., Landon [REDACTED]
Sent: 11/14/2016 3:32:12 PM
To: Jeffrey Epstein [jeevacation@gmail.com]
Subject: Fwd: EUROPEAN MULTI ASSET COVERAGE MEETING IMPRESSIONS: Eyes on Real Money outflows; Christmas comes early for most of macro players, hedge funds. Absolute majority bet on HRC to win, but majority still made good money because ....
Sent: 11/14/2016 3:32:12 PM
To: Jeffrey Epstein [jeevacation@gmail.com]
Subject: Fwd: EUROPEAN MULTI ASSET COVERAGE MEETING IMPRESSIONS: Eyes on Real Money outflows; Christmas comes early for most of macro players, hedge funds. Absolute majority bet on HRC to win, but majority still made good money because ....
Importance: High
The latest thinking from London hedge fund crowd
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Ozan Tarman <[REDACTED]>
Date: Mon, Nov 14, 2016 at 9:40 AM
Subject: EUROPEAN MULTI ASSET COVERAGE MEETING IMPRESSIONS: Eyes on Real Money outflows; Christmas comes early for most of macro players, hedge funds. Absolute majority bet on HRC to win, but majority still made good money because ....
To:
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Ozan Tarman <[REDACTED]>
Date: Mon, Nov 14, 2016 at 9:40 AM
Subject: EUROPEAN MULTI ASSET COVERAGE MEETING IMPRESSIONS: Eyes on Real Money outflows; Christmas comes early for most of macro players, hedge funds. Absolute majority bet on HRC to win, but majority still made good money because ....
To:
Classification: Public
EUROPEAN MULTI ASSET COVERAGE MEETING IMPRESSIONS: Eyes on Real Money outflows; Christmas comes early for most of macro players, hedge funds. Absolute majority bet on HRC to win, but majority still made good money because Hillary bets worked as Trump trades.
Wider, steeper core rates, stronger USD, weaker EM is the Rage. The last one, EM, is the big loser out of Trump Reflation Theme. DM over EM and divergence within DM are very much in vogue. All gains of EMBI since March are gone!
For Rates & FX, it does feel like early days of Taper Tantrum trade of 3 years ago. Both dominated by US price action. In both, hedge funds have now caught the moves, play offense & ride the Trump narrative. Real Money is on the ropes, caught long Fixed Income/duration/carry and cannot play defense fearing Outflows.
In Emerging Markets, most outflows are retail, ETF driven. All eyes on next leg of institutions. In equities, banks big winners; FANGs losing. I asked partners 2 questions. 1) Would the "this will be great for business, feel good factor" wave out-run "if real yields go up, equities are a sell" fear. Clients are torn, but the former, bullish camp wins for now, my colleagues suggest. There are skeptics though.
2) In Europe, do fears over Renzi losing & Le Pen winning climb over the big momentum behind banks etc. Again, my equity team suggests, "no, reflation wave may win over Italy referendum anxiety,, for now." Renzi is now widely expected to lose, so a "yes" would be the big surprise trade. And the bigger elephant in the room is Le Pen. If she wins in May, Europe as we know it may really shake.. But for now this is more in the radars of Euro & EBG traders.
Core rates are driven by the speed of TY sell-off. And in G5 FX, the big driver is USD/JPY. The stronger "we should believe in Trump reflation narrative" winds are, the more USD/JPY buyers we see.
Some in Research warn that Trump may succeed in "tax cuts, faster than any infrastructure spending," but few macro are in mood to listen. A few players believe, looking at trade weights of each with US and magnitude of sell-off, Asia FX may have more weakness to come than MXN. Will copper/infrastructure rally eventually help Chile?
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