HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024141.jpg

Preferred themes

• High quality dividend yields (sourced from existing European and UK equities)
High quality companies with geographically diversified business models that pay sustainable dividends offer an attractive income stream in a low yield world. Historically, dividends have made a substantial contribution to total returns, and we expect this to remain the case in the current environment.

• Western winners from emerging market growth (sourced from existing equity holdings)
Emerging economies continue to grow faster than developed economies. With little need to deleverage and repair balance sheets, Asian economies are also well positioned to continue to outpace their Western peers in the years ahead. We have identified companies from a variety of sectors in Europe, the US and Japan which have significant exposure to the rapidly growing emerging regions. We believe a diversified portfolio of these companies will reward investors seeking to profit from the robust demand growth in emerging economies.

• Natural gas growth gainers
Natural gas is a relatively clean source of energy, and we think it will benefit from continued substitution for other energy sources over the long term. We have examined the dynamics of the global market and the various components of the gas value chain, and identified the areas we see as the most significant beneficiaries currently. These include producers in Europe and Asia, suppliers of infrastructure, services and related machinery, and Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) in the US, that offer both attractive yields and growth.

• Government bond alternatives (sourced from government bonds – CIO UW)
Developed world government bonds offer a comparatively small cushion against future interest rate hikes and many face increasing credit risk. We expect select bonds of supranational or national agencies, sub-national governments, multinational corporates, and covered bonds to outperform government bonds. We recommend switching out of government bonds into these alternatives.

• US high yield corporate bonds (sourced from government bonds – CIO UW)
Positive economic growth, robust corporate earnings and healthy balance sheets provide support to US high yield corporate bonds. Current yield spreads of roughly 660 basis points still price in a much more dire economic outcome than we expect. Historically, US high yield bonds have delivered similar returns to US equities with lower volatility. We continue to believe that US high yield corporate bonds represent a more favorable risk/return potential than equities and expect total returns of approximately 7% over the next 6 months.

• The place to be in Hedge Funds
Recent economic data has shown signs of improvement, but growth in most developed markets remains muted. In this environment, less directional hedge fund strategies, such as relative value and event driven, should offer above average returns.

• EM corporates: a growing asset class (sourced from global government bonds – CIO UW)
Given our relatively constructive current view on risk, we regard EM corporate debt as more attractive than EM sovereign debt due to its higher overall yield. Over a 6-month horizon, we expect EM corporate bonds to outperform US Treasuries and deliver total returns of close to 8% p.a.

UBS
6
Please see important disclaimer and disclosures at the end of the document.
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024141