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Article 5.
TIME
The Optimism Bias
Tali Sharot

May. 28, 2011 -- We like to think of ourselves as rational creatures.
We watch our backs, weigh the odds, pack an umbrella. But both
neuroscience and social science suggest that we are more optimistic
than realistic. On average, we expect things to turn out better than
they wind up being. People hugely underestimate their chances of
getting divorced, losing their job or being diagnosed with cancer;
expect their children to be extraordinarily gifted; envision themselves
achieving more than their peers; and overestimate their likely life
span (sometimes by 20 years or more).
The belief that the future will be much better than the past and
present is known as the optimism bias. It abides in every race, region
and socioeconomic bracket. Schoolchildren playing when-I-grow-up
are rampant optimists, but so are grownups: a 2005 study found that
adults over 60 are just as likely to see the glass half full as young
adults.
You might expect optimism to erode under the tide of news about
violent conflicts, high unemployment, tornadoes and floods and all
the threats and failures that shape human life. Collectively we can
grow pessimistic — about the direction of our country or the ability
of our leaders to improve education and reduce crime. But private
optimism, about our personal future, remains incredibly resilient. A
survey conducted in 2007 found that while 70% thought families in
general were less successful than in their parents' day, 76% of
respondents were optimistic about the future of their own family.
Overly positive assumptions can lead to disastrous miscalculations —
make us less likely to get health checkups, apply sunscreen or open a

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