HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_023717.jpg
2.16 MB
Extraction Summary
7
People
2
Organizations
4
Locations
2
Events
2
Relationships
4
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Email thread
File Size:
2.16 MB
Summary
This document is an email chain from November 14, 2016, in which Landon Thomas Jr. forwards a financial market analysis by Ozan Tarman to Jeffrey Epstein (using the alias Jeffrey E. / jeevacation@gmail.com). The forwarded report details market reactions to the 2016 US election, discussing 'Trump trades,' hedge fund strategies, and European political risks involving Renzi and Le Pen. Epstein acknowledges the information with a brief 'thx'.
People (7)
| Name | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey E. | Sender |
Jeffrey Epstein, sending a reply from jeevacation@gmail.com
|
| Landon Thomas Jr. | Recipient/Sender |
Received reply from Epstein; forwarded the original market report to Epstein
|
| Ozan Tarman | Original Sender |
Author of the financial market analysis email
|
| HRC | Politician |
Hillary Rodham Clinton, mentioned regarding election bets
|
| Trump | Politician |
Donald Trump, mentioned regarding 'Trump trades', 'Trump Reflation Theme', and narrative
|
| Renzi | Politician |
Matteo Renzi, mentioned regarding Italian referendum anxiety
|
| Le Pen | Politician |
Marine Le Pen, described as the 'bigger elephant in the room' for Europe
|
Organizations (2)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| London hedge fund crowd |
Described by Landon Thomas Jr. as the source of the thinking
|
|
| House Oversight |
Listed in the footer (bates stamp)
|
Relationships (2)
Thomas forwards financial intelligence to Epstein; Epstein replies with 'thx'.
Thomas receives and forwards Tarman's market analysis.
Key Quotes (4)
"The latest thinking from London hedge fund crowd"Source
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Quote #1
"Absolute majority bet on HRC to win, but majority still made good money because Hillary bets worked as Trump trades."Source
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Quote #2
"Real Money is on the ropes, caught long Fixed Income/duration/carry and cannot play defense fearing Outflows."Source
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Quote #3
"And the bigger elephant in the room is Le Pen. If she wins in May, Europe as we know it may really shake.."Source
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Quote #4
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (2,951 characters)
From: jeffrey E. [jeevacation@gmail.com]
Sent: 11/14/2016 3:34:18 PM
To: Thomas Jr., Landon
Subject: Re: EUROPEAN MULTI ASSET COVERAGE MEETING IMPRESSIONS: Eyes on Real Money outflows; Christmas comes early for most of macro players, hedge funds. Absolute majority bet on HRC to win, but majority still made good money because ....
Sent: 11/14/2016 3:34:18 PM
To: Thomas Jr., Landon
Subject: Re: EUROPEAN MULTI ASSET COVERAGE MEETING IMPRESSIONS: Eyes on Real Money outflows; Christmas comes early for most of macro players, hedge funds. Absolute majority bet on HRC to win, but majority still made good money because ....
thx
On Mon, Nov 14, 2016 at 10:32 AM, Thomas Jr., Landon <[Redacted]> wrote:
The latest thinking from London hedge fund crowd
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Ozan Tarman <[Redacted]>
Date: Mon, Nov 14, 2016 at 9:40 AM
Subject: EUROPEAN MULTI ASSET COVERAGE MEETING IMPRESSIONS: Eyes on Real Money outflows; Christmas comes early for most of macro players, hedge funds. Absolute majority bet on HRC to win, but majority still made good money because ....
To:
The latest thinking from London hedge fund crowd
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Ozan Tarman <[Redacted]>
Date: Mon, Nov 14, 2016 at 9:40 AM
Subject: EUROPEAN MULTI ASSET COVERAGE MEETING IMPRESSIONS: Eyes on Real Money outflows; Christmas comes early for most of macro players, hedge funds. Absolute majority bet on HRC to win, but majority still made good money because ....
To:
Classification: Public
EUROPEAN MULTI ASSET COVERAGE MEETING IMPRESSIONS: Eyes on Real Money outflows; Christmas comes early for most of macro players, hedge funds. Absolute majority bet on HRC to win, but majority still made good money because Hillary bets worked as Trump trades.
Wider, steeper core rates, stronger USD, weaker EM is the Rage. The last one, EM, is the big loser out of Trump Reflation Theme. DM over EM and divergence within DM are very much in vogue. All gains of EMBI since March are gone!
For Rates & FX, it does feel like early days of Taper Tantrum trade of 3 years ago. Both dominated by US price action. In both, hedge funds have now caught the moves, play offense & ride the Trump narrative. Real Money is on the ropes, caught long Fixed Income/duration/carry and cannot play defense fearing Outflows.
In Emerging Markets, most outflows are retail, ETF driven. All eyes on next leg of institutions. In equities, banks big winners; FANGs losing. I asked partners 2 questions. 1) Would the "this will be great for business, feel good factor" wave out-run "if real yields go up, equities are a sell" fear. Clients are torn, but the former, bullish camp wins for now, my colleagues suggest. There are skeptics though.
2) In Europe, do fears over Renzi losing & Le Pen winning climb over the big momentum behind banks etc. Again, my equity team suggests, "no, reflation wave may win over Italy referendum anxiety,, for now." Renzi is now widely expected to lose, so a "yes" would be the big surprise trade. And the bigger elephant in the room is Le Pen. If she wins in May, Europe as we know it may really shake.. But for now this is more in the radars of Euro & EBG traders.
Core rates are driven by the speed of TY sell-off. And in G5 FX, the big driver is USD/JPY. The stronger "we should believe in Trump reflation narrative" winds are, the more USD/JPY buyers we see.
Some in Research warn that Trump may succeed in "tax cuts, faster than any infrastructure spending," but few macro are in mood to listen. A few players believe, looking at trade weights of each with US and magnitude of
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_023717
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