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People
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Financial presentation slide / investment report
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Summary
A Goldman Sachs Investment Management Division presentation slide (page 10) analyzing the impact of sanctions on the Iranian economy. It presents data on GDP growth, inflation, and the devaluation of the Iranian Rial against the USD, specifically noting the impact of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018. The document bears a 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT' Bates stamp, indicating it was part of a Congressional investigation production.
Organizations (10)
Timeline (1 events)
Locations (3)
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Key Quotes (2)
"The IMF forecasts that Iranian real GDP growth in 2019 will be the weakest since 2012 at -6%, even as annualized inflation is running at around 50%."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026954.jpg
Quote #1
"Since the end of 2017 the rial has depreciated by roughly -70%, compared to a -45% peak devaluation for the Turkish lira in 2018."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026954.jpg
Quote #2
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Complete text extracted from the document (1,076 characters)
Iranian Economy Hit Hard by Sanctions
Investment Management Division
Goldman Sachs
Investment Management Division
Goldman Sachs
1. Iran Annualized Real GDP Growth and Inflation¹
[Chart showing Real GDP Growth and CPI % YoY (Right)]
Annualized %
% YoY
-7.7 (2012)
51 (2019E CPI point)
-6.0 (2019E GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
[Chart showing Real GDP Growth and CPI % YoY (Right)]
Annualized %
% YoY
-7.7 (2012)
51 (2019E CPI point)
-6.0 (2019E GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
2. Iranian Rial (Mid) to USD – Unofficial Market Rate
[Chart showing currency trend]
IRR Weaker [Upward arrow]
5/8/18 US announces JCPOA withdrawal [Arrow pointing to chart]
Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18
[Chart showing currency trend]
IRR Weaker [Upward arrow]
5/8/18 US announces JCPOA withdrawal [Arrow pointing to chart]
Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18
▪ The IMF forecasts that Iranian real GDP growth in 2019 will be the weakest since 2012 at -6%, even as annualized inflation is running at around 50%.
▪ The Iranian rial is trading near its all-time low against the US dollar, according to unofficial market rates. Since the end of 2017 the rial has depreciated by roughly -70%, compared to a -45% peak devaluation for the Turkish lira in 2018.
(1) 2019 inflation as of April 2019.
Source: Investment Strategy Group, IMF, Statistical Center of Iran, Haver, Bonbast, Bloomberg.
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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026954
Source: Investment Strategy Group, IMF, Statistical Center of Iran, Haver, Bonbast, Bloomberg.
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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026954
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