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2 MB
Extraction Summary
0
People
7
Organizations
1
Locations
3
Events
1
Relationships
4
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Briefing paper / economic report
File Size:
2 MB
Summary
This document describes the macroeconomic framework and recovery of the Ukrainian economy following the 2014-2015 crisis. It details GDP fluctuations, inflation rates, and fiscal deficits, highlighting a 4-year, $17.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) agreement with the IMF established in March 2015. The text specifically mentions banking reforms, including the nationalization of Privatbank and the liquidation of over 100 other banks. While the prompt mentions Epstein, this document bears a 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT' Bates stamp and appears to be a briefing paper regarding Ukrainian economic stability, likely associated with Congressional investigations into Ukraine (e.g., Burisma/Hunter Biden inquiries).
Organizations (7)
Locations (1)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
Key Quotes (4)
"Following a severe crisis in 2014-15, the economy is growing again-by 2.3 percent in 2016"Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026135.jpg
Quote #1
"GDP, which declined from its peak of US$183 billion in 2013 to US$90 billion in 2015, is now recovering"Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026135.jpg
Quote #2
"Ukraine has entered into a 4-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with IMF in March 2015 for US$17.5 billion."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026135.jpg
Quote #3
"The Ukrainian administration showed commitment to reforms by nationalising the largest private bank, Privatbank, and liquidating over 100 banks within 3 years."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026135.jpg
Quote #4
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (2,590 characters)
Economy
Macroeconomic Framework
(Percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
(Percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
2016 Actual
2017 3rd Review SR
2017 Proj.
2018 3rd Review SR
2018 Proj.
2019 Proj.
2020 Proj.
2021 Proj.
2017 3rd Review SR
2017 Proj.
2018 3rd Review SR
2018 Proj.
2019 Proj.
2020 Proj.
2021 Proj.
Real GDP
2.3
2.9
2.0
3.1
3.2
3.5
4.0
4.0
2.3
2.9
2.0
3.1
3.2
3.5
4.0
4.0
Inflation (eop)
12.4
10.0
10.0
7.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
5.0
12.4
10.0
10.0
7.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
5.0
General government balance 1/
-2.2
-3.1
-3.0
-2.6
-2.5
-2.3
-2.1
-2.0
-2.2
-3.1
-3.0
-2.6
-2.5
-2.3
-2.1
-2.0
Public Debt 1/
81.2
91.4
89.8
86.2
85.3
78.1
71.6
65.6
81.2
91.4
89.8
86.2
85.3
78.1
71.6
65.6
External current account 1/
-3.6
-3.0
-3.7
-2.6
-3.0
-2.4
-2.3
-2.9
-3.6
-3.0
-3.7
-2.6
-3.0
-2.4
-2.3
-2.9
GIR (eop, billions of U.S. dollars)
15.5
22.3
21.8
30.2
29.5
30.1
30.8
32.0
15.5
22.3
21.8
30.2
29.5
30.1
30.8
32.0
Months of next year's imports
3.4
4.7
4.6
5.9
5.8
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.4
4.7
4.6
5.9
5.8
5.4
5.2
5.0
Percent of IMF composite measures
61.9
83.9
82.0
105.3
102.4
101.3
101.8
102.4
61.9
83.9
82.0
105.3
102.4
101.3
101.8
102.4
Sources: Ukrainian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
1/ Percent of GDP.
1/ Percent of GDP.
Following a severe crisis in 2014-15, the economy is growing again-by 2.3 percent in 2016-and the flexible exchange rate and tight fiscal and monetary policies have greatly reduced internal and external imbalances. GDP, which declined from its peak of US$183 billion in 2013 to US$90 billion in 2015, is now recovering at a growth above 2% and is expected to grow at 3.2% in 2018. Growth is projected at 3.5%-4% in the medium term (IMF).
The current account deficit fell sharply, from over 9% of GDP in 2013 to 3.6% of GDP in 2016 and reserves-while still low-have more than doubled to US$17.6 billion (end of 2017 target at US$21.3 billion). The overall fiscal deficit-including the energy sector's quasi-fiscal losses, which had increased to 10 percent of GDP in 2014, declined to 2.3% of GDP in 2016, supported by strong spending control and the decision to raise energy tariffs to market levels.
Inflation has fallen steadily from its peak of 61% in April 2015 to 12.4% by end-2016, well within the target range of the NBU. It is projected to reach 9% in 2017 and 5% in the medium term.
Ukraine has entered into a 4-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with IMF in March 2015 for US$17.5 billion. Following the third review by IMF the fourth tranche of US$1 billion was approved which would bring total disbursements under the arrangement to about US$8.38 billion. The EFF aims to put the economy on the path to recovery, restore external sustainability, strengthen public finances, maintain financial stability, and support economic growth by advancing structural and governance reforms, while protecting the most vulnerable.
The Ukrainian administration showed commitment to reforms by nationalising the largest private bank, Privatbank, and liquidating over 100 banks within 3 years.
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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026135
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