HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025682.jpg
922 KB
Extraction Summary
3
People
5
Organizations
1
Locations
0
Events
2
Relationships
3
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Presentation slide / financial analysis
File Size:
922 KB
Summary
A Goldman Sachs Investment Management Division presentation slide (page 19) analyzing Bitcoin's performance through August 2017. The document utilizes the 'ISG Bubble Indicator' to contrast the US stock market (low bubble probability) with Bitcoin, concluding that Bitcoin has been in 'bubble territory' since early 2017. The document bears a House Oversight Committee Bates stamp.
People (3)
| Name | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Peter C.B. Phillips | Author |
Cited in footnote as co-author of 'Testing for Multiple Bubbles' paper.
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| Shu-Ping Shi | Author |
Cited in footnote as co-author of 'Testing for Multiple Bubbles' paper.
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| Jun Yu | Author |
Cited in footnote as co-author of 'Testing for Multiple Bubbles' paper.
|
Organizations (5)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs |
Investment Management Division created the slide.
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|
| Investment Strategy Group (ISG) |
Provided the 'ISG Bubble Indicator' data.
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| Bloomberg |
Cited as a data source.
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| International Economic Review |
Publisher of the cited academic paper.
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| House Oversight Committee |
Implied by the Bates stamp 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT'.
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Locations (1)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
|
Mentioned in context of 'US stock market'.
|
Relationships (2)
Listed together in citation (1).
Listed together in citation (1).
Key Quotes (3)
"Bitcoin’s Recent Performance is Suggestive of Bubble Territory"Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025682.jpg
Quote #1
"A bubble-detection test... suggests only a 16% probability that the US stock market is currently in a bubble."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025682.jpg
Quote #2
"Bitcoin’s price performance, on the other hand, suggests the asset has been in bubble territory since early this year."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025682.jpg
Quote #3
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (977 characters)
Investment Management Division | Goldman Sachs
Bitcoin’s Recent Performance is Suggestive of Bubble Territory
Bitcoin’s Recent Performance is Suggestive of Bubble Territory
Bitcoin Performance in the Context of ISG Bubble Indicator
[Chart Graph displaying percentage from 0% to 100% over timeline Nov-13 to Aug-17]
[X-Axis Labels: Nov-13, Feb-14, May-14, Aug-14, Nov-14, Feb-15, May-15, Aug-15, Nov-15, Feb-16, May-16, Aug-16, Nov-16, Feb-17, May-17, Aug-17]
[Chart Graph displaying percentage from 0% to 100% over timeline Nov-13 to Aug-17]
[X-Axis Labels: Nov-13, Feb-14, May-14, Aug-14, Nov-14, Feb-15, May-15, Aug-15, Nov-15, Feb-16, May-16, Aug-16, Nov-16, Feb-17, May-17, Aug-17]
▪ A bubble-detection test that measures explosive price behavior based on the S&P 500’s price-to-dividend ratio¹ suggests only a 16% probability that the US stock market is currently in a bubble.
▪ Bitcoin’s price performance, on the other hand, suggests the asset has been in bubble territory since early this year.
▪ Bitcoin’s price performance, on the other hand, suggests the asset has been in bubble territory since early this year.
(1) Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi and Jun Yu, “Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S&P 500,” International Economic Review, Oct 28, 2015.
Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg.
19
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025682
Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg.
19
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025682
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