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Financial research report
File Size:
1.28 MB
Summary
A page from a Morgan Stanley Research report providing a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) and sensitivity analysis for Oaktree Capital Group (OAK). The document includes financial models projecting values based on C-Corp conversion scenarios, specifically highlighting a 'Market Implied Carry Value' of $12.14. The page bears the Bates stamp HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025577, indicating it is part of a document production for a congressional investigation.
Organizations (5)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | ||
| Oaktree Capital Group | ||
| OAK | ||
| Thomson Reuters | ||
| House Oversight Committee |
Locations (1)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
Relationships (1)
Morgan Stanley Research report analyzing Oaktree Capital Group stock.
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (1,774 characters)
Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH
NORTH AMERICA INSIGHT
NORTH AMERICA INSIGHT
Oaktree Capital Group SOTP and Sensitivity Analysis
Exhibit 45:
SOTP for OAK
Oaktree Capital Group (OAK)
SOTP for OAK
Oaktree Capital Group (OAK)
Sum-of-the-Parts Components (OAK)
Current Price SOTP
Downside Case C-Corp Conversion
Change
Upside Case C-Corp Conversion
Change
Current Price SOTP
Downside Case C-Corp Conversion
Change
Upside Case C-Corp Conversion
Change
Fee Related Earnings
2018e Pre-Tax Core FRE / Sh $1.06
Tax Rate 24%
2018e After-Tax Core FRE / Sh $0.81
FRE Multiple 15.0x
Core FRE Value $12.11
2018e Pre-Tax Core FRE / Sh $1.06
Tax Rate 24%
2018e After-Tax Core FRE / Sh $0.81
FRE Multiple 15.0x
Core FRE Value $12.11
Downside Case:
$1.06 0%
24% 0%
$0.81 0%
15.0x 0.0x
$12.11 0%
$1.06 0%
24% 0%
$0.81 0%
15.0x 0.0x
$12.11 0%
Upside Case:
$1.06 0%
24% 0%
$0.81 0%
22.5x 7.5x
$18.17 50%
$1.06 0%
24% 0%
$0.81 0%
22.5x 7.5x
$18.17 50%
Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet Net Cash and Investments / Sh (as of 3Q17)
$15.19
$15.19 0%
$15.19 0%
Balance Sheet Net Cash and Investments / Sh (as of 3Q17)
$15.19
$15.19 0%
$15.19 0%
Accrued Carry
Net Accrued Carry / Sh (as of 3Q17)
$5.76
$4.38 -24%
$4.38 -24%
Net Accrued Carry / Sh (as of 3Q17)
$5.76
$4.38 -24%
$4.38 -24%
Market Implied Carry Value
Avg Net Carried interest / Sh (2018e-2020e)
$2.20
$1.68 -24%
$1.68 -24%
Avg Net Carried interest / Sh (2018e-2020e)
$2.20
$1.68 -24%
$1.68 -24%
Multiple 5.5x
4.0x -1.5x
7.5x 2.0x
4.0x -1.5x
7.5x 2.0x
Market Implied Carry Value $12.14
$6.71 -45%
$12.58 4%
$6.71 -45%
$12.58 4%
Valuation
Total Value $45.20
$38.39 -15%
$50.31 11%
Total Value $45.20
$38.39 -15%
$50.31 11%
2018e EPS $3.55
$3.01 -15%
$3.01 -15%
$3.01 -15%
$3.01 -15%
P/E 12.7x
12.7x 0.0x
16.7x 4.0x
12.7x 0.0x
16.7x 4.0x
Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Exhibit 46:
OAK Estimated Potential Share Price in C-corp Conversion
Multiple on Future Performance Fees
Fee Related Earnings Multiple
[Matrix Table Data Omitted for brevity, ranges from 12.5x to 30.0x on Y-axis and 2.0x to 8.0x on X-axis]
OAK Estimated Potential Share Price in C-corp Conversion
Multiple on Future Performance Fees
Fee Related Earnings Multiple
[Matrix Table Data Omitted for brevity, ranges from 12.5x to 30.0x on Y-axis and 2.0x to 8.0x on X-axis]
Exhibit 47:
OAK Estimated % Change in Current Share Price
Multiple on Future Performance Fees
Fee Related Earnings Multiple
[Matrix Table Data Omitted for brevity, ranges from 12.5x to 30.0x on Y-axis and 2.0x to 8.0x on X-axis]
OAK Estimated % Change in Current Share Price
Multiple on Future Performance Fees
Fee Related Earnings Multiple
[Matrix Table Data Omitted for brevity, ranges from 12.5x to 30.0x on Y-axis and 2.0x to 8.0x on X-axis]
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025577
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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025577
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