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2.02 MB

Extraction Summary

7
People
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Organizations
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Locations
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Events
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Relationships
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Quotes

Document Information

Type: Scientific text / academic paper / book excerpt
File Size: 2.02 MB
Summary

This document appears to be page 207 of a scientific paper or book contained within a House Oversight production (likely related to the Epstein investigation given the context of scientific funding). The text discusses statistical analysis, probability theory, biological processes, and randomness, citing various researchers including Feller, Erdos, Renyi, and Hermann Haken. It specifically explores the concepts of coin toss probability, variance in biological events, and 'synergetics'.

People (7)

Name Role Context
Hermann Haken Scientist / Cited Expert
Described as the 'father of laser-inspired synergetics'
Feller Author (Cited)
Cited for work from 1968 regarding statistical distribution
Erdos Author (Cited)
Cited for work from 1970 regarding coin tossing mechanisms
Renyi Author (Cited)
Cited for work from 1970 regarding coin tossing mechanisms
Steriade Author (Cited)
Cited for work from 1990 regarding visual attention
McCarley Author (Cited)
Cited for work from 1990 regarding visual attention
Wegner Author (Cited)
Cited for work from 1994 regarding the 'white bear' thought suppression concept

Organizations (1)

Name Type Context
House Oversight Committee
Indicated by the document footer 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_013707'

Relationships (1)

Hermann Haken Founder/Father Synergetics
Described as the father of laser-inspired synergetics

Key Quotes (3)

"Hermann Haken, the father of laser-inspired 'synergetics,' has said that biological mechanisms are not in a steady"
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Quote #1
"It has been proven that the expected run length grows with n coin flips... like the logarithm... of n."
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Quote #2
"Instead of 'regressing to the mean' with increasing sample length or number, the likelihood of a larger deviation than previously observed increases with n."
Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_013707.jpg
Quote #3

Full Extracted Text

Complete text extracted from the document (2,502 characters)

Before describing the relatively new set of measures of biological processes designed to find and quantitate what are assumed to be relatively sample size insensitive, distributionally nonconvergent and multiply correlated processes that are without a single time or space scale, we should remind ourselves that there is already much more apparent “order” in a generically random situation than our intuitions would lead us to believe. For example, if we keep cumulative scores in a competition between heads and tails and determine the distribution of trials between those in which the number of heads and tails are even, we will get periods between zero crossings of many lengths with very short ones and very (very) long ones being most statistically prominent. The distribution of these wavelengths is shaped like a symmetrically fat-tailed, bowl (Feller, 1968). As another illustration, expected runs of heads or tails in this Gaussian random task are longer and more frequent than we might suspect. It has been proven that the expected run length grows with n coin flips (as an order of magnitude estimate) like the logarithm (for a fair coin, base 1/p = 1/0.5 = 2) of n. For example, in 512 ( e.g. 2⁹) tosses, we cannot report a run of 9 heads as a evidence for a biased coin or the sign of some deterministic coin tossing mechanism (Erdos and Renyi, 1970). If we had a 0.6 head biased coin, then the observation of a run of 13 heads couldn’t dissuade us from a random mechanism!
Unlike our random coin task, the variances of many, perhaps most, time series of biologically-relevant events, do not tend to converge onto a limiting value as sample size, n, grows, but rather continue to increase (or decrease) with n in a scale invariant manner. Instead of “regressing to the mean” with increasing sample length or number, the likelihood of a larger deviation than previously observed increases with n. Analyses of inter-event intervals reveals a multiplicity of characteristic times. One interpretation of these finding might be that this represents evidence for the inherent “nonstationarity” of biological mechanisms as reflected in, for examples, the frequency of saccades concomitant with ceaselessly shifting foci of visual attention (Steriade and McCarley, 1990), or our inability to not think of “white bear” when so instructed (Wegner, 1994). Hermann Haken, the father of laser-inspired “synergetics,” has said that biological mechanisms are not in a steady
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