Political/Economic Analysis Report - HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025308

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6

People

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Organizations

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Locations

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Quotes

Document Information

Type: Political/economic analysis report

File Size: 1.12 MB

Summary

This document is page 13 of a report by Laffer Associates titled 'Game On', updated July 6, 2016. It contains a political analysis attempting to predict the 2016 presidential election based on state house, senate, and gubernatorial results. The document includes a chart showing historical data from 1976 to 2016 and predicts a 'Republican landslide' for the 2016 election. It bears the Bates stamp HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025308.

People (6)

Name	Role	Context
Carter	Former US President	Listed on chart timeline (Jimmy Carter)
Reagan	Former US President	Listed on chart timeline (Ronald Reagan)
H.W. Bush	Former US President	Listed on chart timeline (George H.W. Bush)
Clinton	Former US President	Listed on chart timeline (Bill Clinton)
Bush	Former US President	Listed on chart timeline (George W. Bush)
Obama	Former US President	Listed on chart timeline (Barack Obama)

Organizations (6)

Name	Type	Context
Laffer Associates		Authoring organization of the report
U.S. Census Bureau		Data source for the chart
NCSL		National Conference of State Legislatures, data source for the chart
House Oversight Committee		Implied by Bates stamp 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT'
Democrat Party		Referenced in chart legend
Republican Party		Referenced in chart legend and text

Timeline (1 events)

November 2016

Upcoming presidential election

USA

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Key Quotes (1)

"If that close correlation holds in November of 2016, there will be a Republican landslide."

Source

HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025308.jpg

Quote #1

Full Extracted Text

Complete text extracted from the document (1,090 characters)

Laffer Associates
Game On [Updated 7/6/2016]

To put substance into the predictive power of state and local election results for presidential elections, I have graphically aligned state house results for all states with state senate results for all states and gubernatorial results for all states by year.

Figure 7
State House, Senate, and Governorships
(1976-1998: biannual, 2000-2016: annual)

[Chart Axis Labels Y: State House, State Senate, Governors]
[Chart Labels Vertical: Carter, Reagan I, Reagan II, H.W. Bush, Clinton I, Clinton II, Bush I, Bush II, Obama I, Obama II]
[Legend: Democrat (Blue Line), Republican (Red Dashed Line)]
[Chart Axis Labels X: Years 1976, 1979, 1982, 1985, 1988, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015]

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NCSL

While by no means perfect, there is clearly a close correlation between a party’s success in state and local elections, and that party’s success in the upcoming presidential election. If that close correlation holds in November of 2016, there will be a Republican landslide.

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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025308

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