HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026732.jpg
1.66 MB
Extraction Summary
2
People
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Organizations
5
Locations
1
Events
1
Relationships
4
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Speech transcript / presentation draft
File Size:
1.66 MB
Summary
This document appears to be a page from a transcript of a speech or presentation, likely by a scientist (possibly an astronomer given the self-reference), discussing the 'Anthropocene' era. The text covers existential risks (nuclear, bio, AI), the transition to electronic intelligence, and global population demographics, predicting a shift of power to East Asia. The document bears a House Oversight footer, indicating it was part of a document dump related to a congressional investigation.
Organizations (1)
| Name | Type | Context |
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| House Oversight Committee |
Implied by the footer 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026732'.
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Locations (5)
| Location | Context |
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Mentioned regarding population growth.
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Mentioned regarding population growth.
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Identified as the center of future human and financial resource concentration.
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Used as a comparison for age histograms.
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Referenced regarding the end of its 'hegemony'.
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Key Quotes (4)
"We could trigger the transition from biological to electronic intelligences."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026732.jpg
Quote #1
"At any time in the Cold War era ... the superpowers could have stumbled towards armageddon through muddle and miscalculation."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026732.jpg
Quote #2
"Like all scientists they hava a rotten record as forecasters – almost as bad as economists."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026732.jpg
Quote #3
"The main growth is in East Asia , and it’s there that the world’s human and financial resources will become concentrated—ending 4 centuries of North Atlantic hegemony."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026732.jpg
Quote #4
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (2,105 characters)
Hour'. (you Americans seek instant gratification – and the converse).
Its theme was that this century is special: it’s the first when one species, ours, has the planet’s future in its hands. We’re deep in an era that’s called the anthropocene. We have huge powers for good. We could trigger the transition from biological to electronic intelligences. But, on the other hand, we could irreversibly degrade the biosphere, And advanced technology, if misdirected, could cause a devastating setback to civilization.
We’ve had one lucky escape already.
At any time in the Cold War era -- when armament levels escalated beyond all reason --- the superpowers could have stumbled towards armageddon through muddle and miscalculation. The threat is only in abeyance and still looms over us.
Nuclear weapons are based on 20th century science. I’ll focus later in my talk on 21st century sciences -- bio, cyber, and AI – which offer huge potential benefits but also expose us to novel vulnerabilities
Astronomers often have to remind people that they’re not astrologers. Like all scientists they hava a rotten record as forecasters – almost as bad as economists.
But even with a cloudy crystal ball there are some things we can predict about how our whole planet will change.
For instance, humanity’s collective footprint is getting heavier,
Fifty years ago, world population was about 3 billion. It now exceeds 7 billion. The growth’s been mainly in Asia and Africa, as shown in this map where regions are scaled in proportion to that growth.
The number of births per year, worldwide, peaked a few years ago and is going down, Nonetheless world population is forecast to rise to around 9 billion by 2050.
That’s partly because most people in the developing world are young. They are yet to have children, and they will live longer.
The age histogram in the developing world will become more like it is in Europe.
The age histogram in the developing world will become more like it is in Europe.
The main growth is in East Asia , and it’s there that the world’s human and financial resources will become concentrated—ending 4 centuries of North Atlantic hegemony.
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026732
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