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politics: that time and again, political and
ideological prerogatives trump economic
rationality. It made little economic sense,
for example, for Pakistan to pursue a
nuclear weapons program in the 1970s,
just as it makes little economic sense for
Iran to do so today. Clearly, both
Pakistan and Iran made major policy
decisions based on political-military
priorities rather than economic
calculations.
As for the surviving monarchies in the
Middle East, they too will likely be less
accommodating to American military
forces than they have been in the past. To
be sure, much of the Arab support for
past American military operations -- like
both Iraq wars -- was hidden from the
public eye. Arab states often loudly and
publicly denounced "unilateral
American" military action in the region at
the same time as they supported it in
backroom dealings, quietly authorizing
facilities support and air, land, and sea
access.
But if Arab Gulf states were quietly
supportive in the past, their opposition to
American military force is likely to grow
in the future. They read the aftermath of
the Arab uprisings much differently than
did American and European
policymakers. The Gulf monarchies were
shocked that the United States
"abandoned" Egyptian President Hosni

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