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politically as well as by geography, thus freeing Israel to concentrate
on the northern threats and opportunities.
Israel and the Great Powers
The threat to Israel rarely comes from the region, except when the
Israelis are divided internally. The conquests of Israel occur when
powers not adjacent to it begin forming empires. Babylon, Persia,
Macedonia, Rome, Turkey and Britain all controlled Israel
politically, sometimes for worse and sometimes for better. Each
dominated it militarily, but none was a neighbor of Israel. This is a
consistent pattern. Israel can resist its neighbors; danger arises when
more distant powers begin playing imperial games. Empires can bring
force to bear that Israel cannot resist.
Israel therefore has this problem: It would be secure if it could
confine itself to protecting its interests from neighbors, but it cannot
confine itself because its geographic location invariably draws larger,
more distant powers toward Israel. Therefore, while Israel's military
can focus only on immediate interests, its diplomatic interests must
look much further. Israel is constantly entangled with global interests
(as the globe is defined at any point), seeking to deflect and align
with broader global powers. When it fails in this diplomacy, the
consequences can be catastrophic.
Israel exists in three conditions. First, it can be a completely
independent state. This condition occurs when there are no major
imperial powers external to the region. We might call this the David
model. Second, it can live as part of an imperial system — either as a
subordinate ally, as a moderately autonomous entity or as a satrapy.
In any case, it maintains its identity but loses room for independent
maneuvering in foreign policy and potentially in domestic policy. We
might call this the Persian model in its most beneficent form. Finally,
Israel can be completely crushed — with mass deportations and
migrations, with a complete loss of autonomy and minimal residual

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