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make Turkey one of the world’s 10 biggest economies (it is now
17th). This will only be possible if the Middle East is peaceful and
open for business.
Besides dealing with upheaval in the Arab world, Turkey faces three
other key foreign policy challenges. First is the continuing division of
Cyprus between ethnic Greek and Turkish sectors. Second is the
frozen conflict with Armenia, which seemed to be on the brink of
resolution until Turkish and Armenian nationalists killed a promising
agreement reached by both countries two years ago. Erdogan’s new
mandate gives him the power to overrule militants in his ranks. If he
does, and if Armenian leaders can do the same, the entire region will
benefit.
Third is to rebuild relations with Israel. Erdogan has become a hero
in the Middle East for his forthright denunciations of Israel’s
occupation of the West Bank and its blockade of Gaza. Like many
Turks, he is still enraged over the murder of nine Turkish civilians by
Israeli commandos who stormed a freighter bearing relief supplies for
Gaza last year. His anger may be justified by the facts, but he should
realize that a resumption of Turkey’s good ties to Israel could be a
decisive step toward Middle East peace.
Foreign policy challenges are only part of Erdogan’s post-election
agenda. He also needs to deepen Turkish democracy. That would
require resolving the decades-old Kurdish conflict and taking
concrete steps to reassure secular Turks that their country is not
moving toward religious rule.
Turkey’s grand project in the next couple of years will be writing a
new constitution to replace the one imposed by generals three
decades ago. Erdogan wants to replace the current parliamentary
system with one built around a strong president and then run for the
presidency himself. His party did not win enough seats in Parliament
to impose a constitution on its own, so if he wants to make such a

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