HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025574.jpg
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Financial research report / investment bank analysis
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1.26 MB
Summary
This document is a page from a Morgan Stanley research report titled 'North America Insight' focusing on Blackstone (BX). It presents a 'Sum-of-the-Parts' (SOTP) and sensitivity analysis regarding a potential C-Corp conversion for the company, utilizing financial data 'as of 3Q17' and estimates for 2018. The page includes valuation tables (Exhibit 36) and heat maps (Exhibits 37 and 38) projecting share prices and percentage changes based on fee-related earnings multiples. The document bears the stamp 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025574'.
Organizations (5)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | ||
| Blackstone | ||
| BX | ||
| House Oversight Committee (implied by stamp) | ||
| Thomson Reuters |
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Locations (1)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
Relationships (1)
Morgan Stanley Research report analyzing Blackstone (BX) stock valuation.
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (2,044 characters)
Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH
NORTH AMERICA INSIGHT
NORTH AMERICA INSIGHT
Blackstone SOTP and Sensitivity Analysis
Exhibit 36:
SOTP for BX
Blackstone (BX)
SOTP for BX
Blackstone (BX)
[Table Header]
Sum-of-the-Parts Components (BX) | Current Price SOTP | Downside Case C-Corp Conversion | Change | Upside Case C-Corp Conversion | Change
Sum-of-the-Parts Components (BX) | Current Price SOTP | Downside Case C-Corp Conversion | Change | Upside Case C-Corp Conversion | Change
[Fee Related Earnings Section]
2018e Pre-Tax Core FRE / Sh | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% | $1.00 | 0%
Tax Rate | 24% | 24% | 0% | 24% | 0%
2018e After-Tax Core FRE / Sh | $0.76 | $0.76 | 0% | $0.76 | 0%
FRE Multiple | 15.0x | 15.0x | 0.0x | 22.5x | 7.5x
Core FRE Value | $11.36 | $11.36 | 0% | $17.03 | 50%
2018e Pre-Tax Core FRE / Sh | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% | $1.00 | 0%
Tax Rate | 24% | 24% | 0% | 24% | 0%
2018e After-Tax Core FRE / Sh | $0.76 | $0.76 | 0% | $0.76 | 0%
FRE Multiple | 15.0x | 15.0x | 0.0x | 22.5x | 7.5x
Core FRE Value | $11.36 | $11.36 | 0% | $17.03 | 50%
[Balance Sheet Section]
Balance Sheet Net Cash and Investments / Sh (as of 3Q17) | $2.83 | $2.83 | 0% | $2.83 | 0%
Balance Sheet Net Cash and Investments / Sh (as of 3Q17) | $2.83 | $2.83 | 0% | $2.83 | 0%
[Accrued Carry Section]
Net Accrued Carry / Sh (as of 3Q17) | $3.01 | $2.29 | -24% | $2.29 | -24%
Net Accrued Carry / Sh (as of 3Q17) | $3.01 | $2.29 | -24% | $2.29 | -24%
[Market Implied Carry Value Section]
Avg Net Carried interest / Sh (2018e-2020e) | $2.07 | $1.57 | -24% | $1.57 | -24%
Multiple | 9.5x | 8.3x | -1.2x | 11.5x | 2.0x
Market Implied Carry Value | $19.59 | $13.04 | -33% | $18.04 | -8%
Avg Net Carried interest / Sh (2018e-2020e) | $2.07 | $1.57 | -24% | $1.57 | -24%
Multiple | 9.5x | 8.3x | -1.2x | 11.5x | 2.0x
Market Implied Carry Value | $19.59 | $13.04 | -33% | $18.04 | -8%
[Valuation Section]
Total Value | $36.78 | $29.51 | -20% | $40.18 | 9%
2018e EPS | $3.26 | $2.62 | -20% | $2.62 | -20%
P/E | 11.3x | 11.3x | 0.0x | 15.4x | 4.1x
Total Value | $36.78 | $29.51 | -20% | $40.18 | 9%
2018e EPS | $3.26 | $2.62 | -20% | $2.62 | -20%
P/E | 11.3x | 11.3x | 0.0x | 15.4x | 4.1x
Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Exhibit 37:
BX Estimated Potential Share Price in C-corp Conversion
BX Estimated Potential Share Price in C-corp Conversion
[Table Header: Multiple on Future Performance Fees vs Fee Related Earnings Multiple]
[Row Labels: 12.5x, 15.0x, 17.5x, 20.0x, 22.5x, 25.0x, 27.5x, 30.0x]
[Column Labels: 6.3x, 7.3x, 8.3x, 9.3x, 10.3x, 11.5x, 12.3x]
[Matrix Data visible in image]
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
[Row Labels: 12.5x, 15.0x, 17.5x, 20.0x, 22.5x, 25.0x, 27.5x, 30.0x]
[Column Labels: 6.3x, 7.3x, 8.3x, 9.3x, 10.3x, 11.5x, 12.3x]
[Matrix Data visible in image]
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Exhibit 38:
BX Estimated % Change in Current Share Price
BX Estimated % Change in Current Share Price
[Table Header: Multiple on Future Performance Fees vs Fee Related Earnings Multiple]
[Row Labels: 12.5x, 15.0x, 17.5x, 20.0x, 22.5x, 25.0x, 27.5x, 30.0x]
[Column Labels: 6.3x, 7.3x, 8.3x, 9.3x, 10.3x, 11.5x, 12.3x]
[Matrix Data visible in image]
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
[Row Labels: 12.5x, 15.0x, 17.5x, 20.0x, 22.5x, 25.0x, 27.5x, 30.0x]
[Column Labels: 6.3x, 7.3x, 8.3x, 9.3x, 10.3x, 11.5x, 12.3x]
[Matrix Data visible in image]
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025574
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025574
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