HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029469.tif
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Locations
6
Events
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Financial report / trade log
File Size:
255 KB
Summary
This document is a financial report detailing various trade expressions and their performance, along with market commentary on central bank policies (Fed, BoE, ECB) and economic outlooks for several regions. It includes both open and closed trades with entry dates, levels, and hit ratios, covering a period from late 2017 to early 2018. The report also highlights political risks in the UK and economic sentiment in Italy and Germany.
Timeline (6 events)
Fed rates expectations for 2019 remain on the low side with just marginally more than 1 hike priced.
BoE not expected to hike as much as markets are pricing for next year.
Risk for equities is a further rise in yields led by higher real rates. S&P was closer to 2720 when 10y real rates were at current levels.
Asymmetry in EURGBP: EUR expected to react positively if Italy/Germany is neutral/positive this weekend and ECB pricing becomes firmer. UK political risk (GBP leg) remains underpriced with increasing odds of early election in 2018.
Equities set up for hawkish BoE hike. Significant unwinds of FTSE longs into meeting. Dovish hike delivered means Long FTSE remains a catch up trade.
Dovish ECB priced in. With a 9x30bn tapering priced, risks skewed to higher core rates and/or tighter spreads.
Key Quotes (4)
"We think Fed rates expectations for 2019 remain on the low side with just marginally more than 1 hike priced."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029469.tif
Quote #1
"We do not think the BoE will hike as much as the Fed next year when markets are pricing marginally more from the BoE."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029469.tif
Quote #2
"The risk for equities is a further rise in yields led by higher real rates. Last time 10y real rates were here S&P was closer to 2720."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029469.tif
Quote #3
"We see asymmetry in EURGBP. We expect EUR to react positively if Italy/Germany is neutral/ positive this weekend and ECB pricing to become firmer. On GBP leg, UK political risk remain underpriced with odds of early election in 2018 increasing"Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029469.tif
Quote #4
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (1,844 characters)
Theme/Trade
We think Fed rates expectations for 2019
remain on the low side with just
marginally more than 1 hike priced.
We do not think the BoE will hike as
much as the Fed next year when markets
are pricing marginally more from the
BoE.
The risk for equities is a further rise in
yields led by higher real rates. Last time
10y real rates were here S&P was closer
to 2720.
We see asymmetry in EURGBP. We
expect EUR to react positively if
Italy/Germany is neutral/ positive this
weekend and ECB pricing to become
firmer. On GBP leg, UK political risk
remain underpriced with odds of early
election in 2018 increasing
Trade Expression
Entry Date Expiry
Entry Level Current Level Hit Ratio
Buy Dec18 Eurodollar
Futures (EDZ8) vs Sell
Dec19 Eurodollar
Futures (EDZ9)
Buy Dec19 Short
Sterling futures (L Z9)
vs Sell Dec18 Short
Sterling Futures (L Z8)
Long SPX Mar18
2640/2600 put spread
Long EURGBP 3m
0.91/0.94 call spread
MEGA Closed Trades (Hit Ratio Closed Trades = 77%)
Theme/Trade
Equities set up for hawkish BoE hike.
Significant unwinds of FTSE longs into
meeting. Dovish hike delivered means
Long FTSE remains a catch up trade.
Dovish ECB priced in. With a 9x30bn
tapering priced, risks skewed to higher
core rates and/or tighter spreads both of
We think Fed rates expectations for 2019
remain on the low side with just
Trade Expression
Long FTSE Feb18
7550/7700 call spread
for 42 offer (7476 ref)
(rolled from Dec, 7460
ref)
Long SX7E Feb18 140
calls (rolled from Jan,
134 fut ref)
07/02/2018
07/02/2018
97.63/97.31 97.455/97.125
98.76/99.09 98.67/98.98
28/02/2018 16/03/2018
10
0.00
02/03/2018
0.62%
0.45%
Entry Date Close Date Entry Level Close Level Hit Ratio
02/11/2017 11/01/2018
42
100
24/10/2017 25/01/2018
0.9
3.3
Buy Mar18 Eurodollar
Futures (EDH8) vs Sell
11/01/2018 07/02/2018 98.18/97.535 98.12/97.31
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029469
We think Fed rates expectations for 2019
remain on the low side with just
marginally more than 1 hike priced.
We do not think the BoE will hike as
much as the Fed next year when markets
are pricing marginally more from the
BoE.
The risk for equities is a further rise in
yields led by higher real rates. Last time
10y real rates were here S&P was closer
to 2720.
We see asymmetry in EURGBP. We
expect EUR to react positively if
Italy/Germany is neutral/ positive this
weekend and ECB pricing to become
firmer. On GBP leg, UK political risk
remain underpriced with odds of early
election in 2018 increasing
Trade Expression
Entry Date Expiry
Entry Level Current Level Hit Ratio
Buy Dec18 Eurodollar
Futures (EDZ8) vs Sell
Dec19 Eurodollar
Futures (EDZ9)
Buy Dec19 Short
Sterling futures (L Z9)
vs Sell Dec18 Short
Sterling Futures (L Z8)
Long SPX Mar18
2640/2600 put spread
Long EURGBP 3m
0.91/0.94 call spread
MEGA Closed Trades (Hit Ratio Closed Trades = 77%)
Theme/Trade
Equities set up for hawkish BoE hike.
Significant unwinds of FTSE longs into
meeting. Dovish hike delivered means
Long FTSE remains a catch up trade.
Dovish ECB priced in. With a 9x30bn
tapering priced, risks skewed to higher
core rates and/or tighter spreads both of
We think Fed rates expectations for 2019
remain on the low side with just
Trade Expression
Long FTSE Feb18
7550/7700 call spread
for 42 offer (7476 ref)
(rolled from Dec, 7460
ref)
Long SX7E Feb18 140
calls (rolled from Jan,
134 fut ref)
07/02/2018
07/02/2018
97.63/97.31 97.455/97.125
98.76/99.09 98.67/98.98
28/02/2018 16/03/2018
10
0.00
02/03/2018
0.62%
0.45%
Entry Date Close Date Entry Level Close Level Hit Ratio
02/11/2017 11/01/2018
42
100
24/10/2017 25/01/2018
0.9
3.3
Buy Mar18 Eurodollar
Futures (EDH8) vs Sell
11/01/2018 07/02/2018 98.18/97.535 98.12/97.31
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029469
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