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Enemy disinformation, as well as simple error, can also set us on the
wrong track. The enemy acts not just on the battlefield but also
through an ability to influence our understanding of the situation by
means of denial and deception. In this and other ways complexity
reinforces uncertainty.1 The large number of actors involved in the
Iranian situation would make it very difficult to discern clearly what
is happening once the shooting starts, and the scene would remain
very fluid as long as the fight persisted, and very likely for a good
while afterward.2
As to the meaning of war, it may hardly seem worthwhile to probe
something so self-evident, except that it is not self-evident anymore,
if it ever was. A simple definition of war is the waging of armed
conflict against an enemy, but this is too limited a concept in the 21st
century. War in our time involves simultaneous conflict in the
military, diplomatic, economic and social domains on four levels:
political, strategic, operational and tactical.3 While a war with Iran
might begin in the military domain, it would likely expand to others,
and while it might begin at the operational or tactical level it would
soon encompass strategic and political levels as well.
How these twin expansions would take place has everything to do
with context. All wars have one. Would a U.S.-Iran war break out
during a protracted diplomatic process, or in the absence or abeyance
of one? Would it happen during a period of increasing tension and
military readiness, or out of the blue, after one party thinks that the
dangers of war have subsided? Would the U.S. government assemble
a broad “coalition of the willing”, just a few close allies-in-arms at
the ready, or go it alone, even actively dissuading Israel from joining
an attack? What would the domestic political situation be in the
United States? Would there be an internal political consensus to act,
or would there be an active, acrimonious debate? Would the
American people be prepared for the aftermath of an initial attack,

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