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8

Of course, it is difficult to know what is going on in the minds of
Israeli decision-makers. But the result seems clear: Netanyahu has
decided to mix deterrence with opportunity. Undoubtedly, he
believes that the Arab revolutions will not be prepared to move closer
to peace on his terms and that they will most likely make the current
peace colder than the polar icecaps. However, Israel can live with
frigidity. Indeed, the Israeli right has never been keen to make the
climate warmer, let alone to turn Israel into a normal country at home
with others in the Middle East, a notion that seems to find few takers
in Israel.
As is the case with epic narratives, the Arab spring and the Obama
initiative are two threads of a story whose coming together does not
herald an end, but rather forms one out of many chapters. The fate of
this coming together is still difficult to determine. However, there are
elements that seem to be propelling it forward, such as the recent
French initiative offering to host a Palestinian-Israeli summit
meeting, which must be seen against the backdrop of the looming
September deadline when the Palestinians and Arabs plan to seek a
UN General Assembly Resolution recognising a Palestinian state
within the 1967 borders.
France is clearly striving to score points for its new more active
approach to the Middle East. However, it is also working in the same
direction as Obama, which is to dissuade the Palestinians and Arabs
from going to the UN in September.
Curiously, all this is unfolding at a time when the Arabs' own
collective body, the Arab League, is weaker than ever. No Arab
summit has been convened, and the current secretary-general is
preoccupied with his own political future in Egypt. Meanwhile,
bilateral relations that have long rested on an Egyptian-Saudi footing
are in some confusion. There seems to be considerable wavering
between the principle that this basis should remain firm regardless of

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