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1.77 MB
Extraction Summary
3
People
8
Organizations
5
Locations
2
Events
2
Relationships
4
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Political research report / white paper
File Size:
1.77 MB
Summary
This document is page 10 of a political analysis report by Laffer Associates, updated July 6, 2016, titled 'Game On'. It analyzes 2016 caucus turnouts and historical trends in U.S. House and Senate seat counts to predict the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election. The report argues that significant Republican gains in Congress signal a political revolution that suggests Hillary Clinton will lose the election ('is toast'). The document bears a 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT' Bates stamp, indicating it was part of a document production to the U.S. House Oversight Committee.
People (3)
| Name | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Hillary Clinton | Presidential Candidate |
Subject of prediction: 'If these federal and state elections are accurate forecasters in 2016, Hillary Clinton is toa...
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| Sanders | U.S. Senator (Independent) |
Mentioned as an Independent from VT who caucuses with Democrats.
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| King | U.S. Senator (Independent) |
Mentioned as an Independent from ME who caucuses with Democrats.
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Organizations (8)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Laffer Associates |
Header of the document.
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| U.S. House of Representatives |
Subject of statistical analysis regarding seat counts.
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| U.S. Senate |
Subject of statistical analysis regarding seat counts.
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| Republican Party |
Analyzed for caucus turnout and seat counts.
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| Democrat Party |
Analyzed for caucus turnout and seat counts.
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| NCSL |
Cited as source for 2009-2016 data.
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| Census.gov |
Cited as source for data prior to 2009.
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| House Oversight Committee |
Implied by Bates stamp 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT'.
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Timeline (2 events)
2016-05-03
Caucuses Following May 3rd
Washington, New Mexico, North Dakota
Republicans
Democrats
Locations (5)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
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State listed in Table 4 regarding caucus turnout.
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State listed in Table 4 regarding caucus turnout.
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State listed in Table 4 regarding caucus turnout.
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State represented by Senator Sanders.
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State represented by Senator King.
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Relationships (2)
listed as Independent who 'always voted with and caucused with the Democrats'
listed as Independent who 'always voted with and caucused with the Democrats'
Key Quotes (4)
"If these federal and state elections are accurate forecasters in 2016, Hillary Clinton is toast."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025305.jpg
Quote #1
"Politics Bubbles Up from the Bottom and Presidential Selection is the Final Coup de Grace of a Political Revolution"Source
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Quote #2
"Today, the tables have turned and the Republicans have their largest majority in the House since 1928"Source
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Quote #3
"The changes in the U.S. Congress over the past eight years are huge and reflect an enormous swing in U.S. political sentiments."Source
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Quote #4
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (2,580 characters)
Laffer Associates
Game On [Updated 7/6/2016]
Game On [Updated 7/6/2016]
Table 4
Caucuses Following May 3rd
Caucuses Following May 3rd
Republican Caucus Turn Out | Democrat Caucus Turn Out
2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2008 | 2016
Washington | Primary | 50,764 | Primary | Primary | 230,000
New Mexico | N/A | N/A | N/A | 153,299 | 214,307
North Dakota | 9,785 | 11,349 | N/A | 19,102 | N/A
2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2008 | 2016
Washington | Primary | 50,764 | Primary | Primary | 230,000
New Mexico | N/A | N/A | N/A | 153,299 | 214,307
North Dakota | 9,785 | 11,349 | N/A | 19,102 | N/A
V. Politics Bubbles Up from the Bottom and Presidential Selection is the Final Coup de Grace of a Political Revolution
The proposition of this section of this paper is that elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate, state houses, state senates and governorships are accurate indicators of Presidential races. If these federal and state elections are accurate forecasters in 2016, Hillary Clinton is toast.
The proposition of this section of this paper is that elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate, state houses, state senates and governorships are accurate indicators of Presidential races. If these federal and state elections are accurate forecasters in 2016, Hillary Clinton is toast.
a.) Politics in the U.S. Congress
In January 2009, there were 57 Democrats in the U.S. Senate, 2 Independents (Sanders VT and King ME) who always voted with and caucused with the Democrats, and 41 Republicans. Today, there are 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats plus the same 2 Independents who are effectively Democrats (see Table 5 below).
In January 2009, there were 57 Democrats in the U.S. Senate, 2 Independents (Sanders VT and King ME) who always voted with and caucused with the Democrats, and 41 Republicans. Today, there are 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats plus the same 2 Independents who are effectively Democrats (see Table 5 below).
Likewise, in January 2009, there were 257 Democrats in the U.S. House and 178 Republicans. Today, the tables have turned and the Republicans have their largest majority in the House since 1928, 247, and the Democrats have 188 House members. Not only have the numbers changed dramatically, but the ideologies have also become more concentrated. The changes in the U.S. Congress over the past eight years are huge and reflect an enormous swing in U.S. political sentiments. But the groundswell doesn't stop there.
Table 5
U.S. Senate Count | U.S. House Count
Democrat | Republican | Other | Democrat | Republican | Other
1999-2001 | 45 | 55 | 0 | 211 | 223 | 1
2001-2003 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 213 | 220 | 2
2003-2005 | 48 | 51 | 1 | 205 | 229 | 1
2005-2007 | 44 | 55 | 1 | 201 | 233 | 1
2007-2009 | 49 | 49 | 2 | 233 | 202 | 0
2009-2011 | 57 | 41 | 2 | 257 | 178 | 0
2011-2013 | 51 | 47 | 2 | 193 | 242 | 0
2013-2015 | 53 | 45 | 2 | 201 | 234 | 0
2015-2017 | 44 | 54 | 2 | 188 | 247 | 0
Source: 2009-2016 NCSL *numbers for State data are of January for each year
Source: Data prior to 2009 census.gov *numbers for state data are of March of each year
Democrat | Republican | Other | Democrat | Republican | Other
1999-2001 | 45 | 55 | 0 | 211 | 223 | 1
2001-2003 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 213 | 220 | 2
2003-2005 | 48 | 51 | 1 | 205 | 229 | 1
2005-2007 | 44 | 55 | 1 | 201 | 233 | 1
2007-2009 | 49 | 49 | 2 | 233 | 202 | 0
2009-2011 | 57 | 41 | 2 | 257 | 178 | 0
2011-2013 | 51 | 47 | 2 | 193 | 242 | 0
2013-2015 | 53 | 45 | 2 | 201 | 234 | 0
2015-2017 | 44 | 54 | 2 | 188 | 247 | 0
Source: 2009-2016 NCSL *numbers for State data are of January for each year
Source: Data prior to 2009 census.gov *numbers for state data are of March of each year
Figure 5
U.S. Senate Count
(two-year cycles, 1999-2017)
[Graph showing trends for Republican and Democrat seats from '99-'01 to '15-'17]
U.S. Senate Count
(two-year cycles, 1999-2017)
[Graph showing trends for Republican and Democrat seats from '99-'01 to '15-'17]
Figure 6
U.S. House Count
(two-year cycles, 1999-2017)
[Graph showing trends for Republican and Democrat seats from '99-'01 to '15-'17]
U.S. House Count
(two-year cycles, 1999-2017)
[Graph showing trends for Republican and Democrat seats from '99-'01 to '15-'17]
Source: Senate.gov
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Source: House.gov
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025305
10
Source: House.gov
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025305
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