HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029721.jpg
1.64 MB
Extraction Summary
1
People
3
Organizations
9
Locations
4
Events
2
Relationships
4
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Government report / geopolitical policy analysis
File Size:
1.64 MB
Summary
This document appears to be a page from a policy report or geopolitical analysis (stamped by House Oversight) discussing the strategic threat posed by a nuclear-armed Iran to Gulf states. It draws parallels to the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and argues that Gulf states perceive a historical reluctance by the U.S. to use military force against Iran, citing lack of retaliation for events in Lebanon, Khobar Towers, and Iraq.
People (1)
| Name | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Saddam Hussein | Former President of Iraq |
Mentioned regarding the 1990 invasion of Kuwait and Kuwait's fear of provoking him.
|
Organizations (3)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Hezbollah |
Mentioned in the context of bombings against Americans in Lebanon in the 1980s.
|
|
| United States Military |
Referenced regarding troops in Iraq and potential military action against Iran.
|
|
| House Oversight Committee |
Source of the document (indicated by footer stamp).
|
Timeline (4 events)
Locations (9)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
|
Invasion of Kuwait (1990); IED campaign against US troops.
|
|
|
Invaded by Iraq in 1990; border tensions.
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|
|
Subject of the analysis regarding nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
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Location of Hezbollah bombings in the 1980s.
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Saudi Arabia; site of 1996 bombing.
|
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Location of Khobar Towers.
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|
Capital of Iran; used metonymically for the Iranian government.
|
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Strategic actor discussed regarding willingness to use force.
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Regional actors whose strategic calculations are being analyzed.
|
Relationships (2)
Kuwait feared provoking Saddam Hussein in 1990.
Key Quotes (4)
"When faced with a build-up of Iraqi forces along its border, Kuwait decided not to mobilize its military out of fear that the move would provoke Saddam Hussein."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029721.jpg
Quote #1
"The incentives for Gulf states to make similar strategic calculations in the future will be greater when Iran has an inventory of nuclear weapons to match its growing ballistic missile capabilities."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029721.jpg
Quote #2
"Gulf states have seen, in their view, a long history of American reluctance to threaten or use force against Iran."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029721.jpg
Quote #3
"Gulf states will no doubt judge that if the United States was unable and unwilling to attack Tehran under these circumstances, then it is certainly not going to attack Iran in the future, when it will be able to retaliate with nuclear weapons."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029721.jpg
Quote #4
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (1,321 characters)
the lead-up to Iraq's invasion in 1990.
When faced with a build-up of Iraqi
forces along its border, Kuwait decided
not to mobilize its military out of fear
that the move would provoke Saddam
Hussein. The incentives for Gulf states to
make similar strategic calculations in the
future will be greater when Iran has an
inventory of nuclear weapons to match its
growing ballistic missile capabilities.
The Gulf states, moreover, will likely
reason that the U.S. capability to threaten
or use force against a nuclear Iran will be
significantly diminished. Even without
nuclear weapons, Gulf states have seen,
in their view, a long history of American
reluctance to threaten or use force against
Iran. For example, the United States took
no direct military action against Iran after
it aided and abetted Hezbollah bombings
against Americans in Lebanon in the
1980s, after Iran supported the bombing
of Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia in
1996, or even after Iran supported the
deadly campaign of improvised explosive
devices (IEDs) against U.S. troops in
Iraq. Gulf states will no doubt judge that
if the United States was unable and
unwilling to attack Tehran under these
circumstances, then it is certainly not
going to attack Iran in the future, when it
will be able to retaliate with nuclear
weapons.
When faced with a build-up of Iraqi
forces along its border, Kuwait decided
not to mobilize its military out of fear
that the move would provoke Saddam
Hussein. The incentives for Gulf states to
make similar strategic calculations in the
future will be greater when Iran has an
inventory of nuclear weapons to match its
growing ballistic missile capabilities.
The Gulf states, moreover, will likely
reason that the U.S. capability to threaten
or use force against a nuclear Iran will be
significantly diminished. Even without
nuclear weapons, Gulf states have seen,
in their view, a long history of American
reluctance to threaten or use force against
Iran. For example, the United States took
no direct military action against Iran after
it aided and abetted Hezbollah bombings
against Americans in Lebanon in the
1980s, after Iran supported the bombing
of Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia in
1996, or even after Iran supported the
deadly campaign of improvised explosive
devices (IEDs) against U.S. troops in
Iraq. Gulf states will no doubt judge that
if the United States was unable and
unwilling to attack Tehran under these
circumstances, then it is certainly not
going to attack Iran in the future, when it
will be able to retaliate with nuclear
weapons.
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029721
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