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This document from Ackrell Capital provides a sensitivity analysis for the international legal cannabis market size, forecasting a potential global market exceeding $300 billion within 10-15 years. It includes estimates excluding major Asian markets but notes the potential for the market to exceed $500 billion if countries like China and Japan legalize cannabis. The page concludes with a disclaimer regarding the uncertainty of these predictions and potential risks to the industry.
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| Name | Type | Context |
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| Ackrell Capital, LLC | ||
| Ackrell Capital | ||
| FINRA | ||
| SIPC |
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Key Quotes (3)
"Together, these two forecasts indicate a global legal cannabis market in the foreseeable future of more than $300 billion."Source
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"If and when that occurs, the size of the global legal cannabis market will increase significantly and, we believe, may ultimately exceed $500 billion annually."Source
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"Almost certainly, our opinions, predictions and estimates will prove inaccurate in some respects."Source
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Complete text extracted from the document (2,778 characters)
ACKRELL
CAPITAL
CHAPTER VI U.S. and International Cannabis Market Estimates
CAPITAL
CHAPTER VI U.S. and International Cannabis Market Estimates
illustrate the impact of varying these factors with the following sensitivity analysis, which shows the
estimated market size at maturity using a range of penetration rates and monthly spending weighted
averages.
estimated market size at maturity using a range of penetration rates and monthly spending weighted
averages.
International Legal Cannabis Market Size: Sensitivity Analysis
($ millions)
Weighted Average Monthly Consumer Spending
$10 $20 $30 $40 $50
Adult Population Penetration Rate
5% $ 10,606 $ 21,211 $ 31,817 $ 42,422 $ 53,028
10% 21,211 42,422 63,634 84,845 106,056
15% 31,817 63,634 95,450 127,267 159,084
20% 42,422 84,845 127,267 169,690 212,112
25% 53,028 106,056 159,084 212,112 265,140
30% 63,634 127,267 190,901 254,534 318,168
35% 74,239 148,478 222,718 296,957 371,196
Weighted Average Monthly Consumer Spending
$10 $20 $30 $40 $50
Adult Population Penetration Rate
5% $ 10,606 $ 21,211 $ 31,817 $ 42,422 $ 53,028
10% 21,211 42,422 63,634 84,845 106,056
15% 31,817 63,634 95,450 127,267 159,084
20% 42,422 84,845 127,267 169,690 212,112
25% 53,028 106,056 159,084 212,112 265,140
30% 63,634 127,267 190,901 254,534 318,168
35% 74,239 148,478 222,718 296,957 371,196
Source: Ackrell Capital
Based on the preceding assumptions and methodology, we believe that the international legal can-
nabis market for select countries with medical or recreational laws and certain countries we believe
may develop into legal markets for cannabis has the potential to exceed $200 billion within the next
10 to 15 years. And as discussed earlier in this chapter, we forecast the U.S. legal cannabis market to
reach more than $100 billion in this same period. Together, these two forecasts indicate a global legal
cannabis market in the foreseeable future of more than $300 billion.
nabis market for select countries with medical or recreational laws and certain countries we believe
may develop into legal markets for cannabis has the potential to exceed $200 billion within the next
10 to 15 years. And as discussed earlier in this chapter, we forecast the U.S. legal cannabis market to
reach more than $100 billion in this same period. Together, these two forecasts indicate a global legal
cannabis market in the foreseeable future of more than $300 billion.
In our view, most countries located in Asia will take the longest to enact and implement cannabis
access laws; therefore, we have not included the markets in countries such as China, with a population
of 1.4 billion people, or Japan, with the third highest GDP in the world, in our global market estimate.
If cannabis legalization continues in the United States and the rest of the world as we anticipate, we
believe that many countries in Asia will ultimately follow suit. If and when that occurs, the size of the
global legal cannabis market will increase significantly and, we believe, may ultimately exceed $500
billion annually.
access laws; therefore, we have not included the markets in countries such as China, with a population
of 1.4 billion people, or Japan, with the third highest GDP in the world, in our global market estimate.
If cannabis legalization continues in the United States and the rest of the world as we anticipate, we
believe that many countries in Asia will ultimately follow suit. If and when that occurs, the size of the
global legal cannabis market will increase significantly and, we believe, may ultimately exceed $500
billion annually.
As discussed on page 175, readers are cautioned to not place undue reliance on our opinions, pre-
dictions or estimates. Almost certainly, our opinions, predictions and estimates will prove inaccurate in
some respects. A number of factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those
indicated by our opinions, predictions and estimates. U.S. states and countries abroad may reverse
their cannabis legalization efforts. The medical efficacy of cannabis may not prove to be significant.
Cannabis may never be legalized federally in the United States. Certain factors affecting the cannabis
industry are discussed in more detail in Chapter IX, Cannabis Industry Risk Factors.
dictions or estimates. Almost certainly, our opinions, predictions and estimates will prove inaccurate in
some respects. A number of factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those
indicated by our opinions, predictions and estimates. U.S. states and countries abroad may reverse
their cannabis legalization efforts. The medical efficacy of cannabis may not prove to be significant.
Cannabis may never be legalized federally in the United States. Certain factors affecting the cannabis
industry are discussed in more detail in Chapter IX, Cannabis Industry Risk Factors.
© 2017 Ackrell Capital, LLC | Member FINRA / SIPC
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