This document is a sales material or research report titled 'GEMs Paper #31: Saudi Arabia: growth bull, fiscal bear' from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, dated January 29, 2018. It provides analysis and key takeaways on various Saudi companies (Jarir, Al Tayyar, Makkah real estate REIT, Al Hokair, Malath, Alrajhi Takaful) and the overall economic outlook for Saudi Arabia, prepared by Cole Mackay.
| Name | Role | Context |
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| Cole Mackay | CFA, Director |
Emerging Europe, Middle East & Africa Equity Sales at Bank of America Merrill Lynch
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| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of America Merrill Lynch |
Employer of Cole Mackay, preparer of the material, and subject of the disclaimer link.
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| Jarir |
Company discussed in the report, mentioned for market penetration, ROE, and dividend.
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| Al Tayyar |
Company discussed in the report, mentioned for positive catalysts, Q1 gov receivable recoveries, 2017 loss, and Q1 ea...
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| Makkah real estate REIT |
Company discussed in the report, mentioned for providing an uplift.
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| Al Hokair |
Company discussed in the report, mentioned for underperformance, improvement in 2018, social reforms, and debt restru...
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| Malath |
Motor insurer discussed in the report.
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| Alrajhi Takaful |
Motor insurer discussed in the report.
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| Location | Context |
|---|---|
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Primary country of focus for the report, referred to as 'Saudi index'.
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Region of focus for Cole Mackay's equity sales role.
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"Jarir: We like Jarir for its potential to increase its market penetration having increased its store count by 13% since August 2017 while maintaining its premium ROE of 53% and attractive dividend."Source
"Al Tayyar: Stock will see a slew of positive catalysts over the next two quarters, particularly a second tranche of substantial gov receivable recoveries in Q1. 130mn SAR loss from associates in 2017 is a one off and should make comps easier this year. Q1 earnings should see the first earnings growth after a very difficult 2 years. Makkah real estate REIT will also provide an uplift."Source
"Al Hokair: has massively under performed in Saudi index and consumer sector and should see substantial improvement in business in 2018 as LFL turns the corner and the company businesses a beneficiary from social reforms in the country. Debt restructuring concerns likely behind us at this point, relief there would be the main catalyst for the name."Source
"Malath / Alrajhi Takaful: 2 of the top motor insurers in Saudi secular growth trend in motor insurance sector over the next two years as the regulator clamps down on more than 50% uninsured drivers while women driving to present multiyear volume growth story."Source
"Growth recovers as high oil prices allow looser fiscal, contain near-term deterioration. Mega-projects offer upside potential"Source
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