HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025809.jpg
1.85 MB
Extraction Summary
6
People
4
Organizations
8
Locations
1
Events
2
Relationships
5
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Meeting minutes / transcript
File Size:
1.85 MB
Summary
This document appears to be a transcript or minutes from a high-level foreign policy meeting (likely circa 2011-2012) discussing the geopolitical implications of the Arab Spring, oil economics, and the US 'Pivot to Asia.' Speakers including Gfoeller, 'Mehgan,' and Bob Blackwill analyze the stability of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the fall of Mubarak in Egypt, and the potential for nuclear proliferation in Iran. The document is stamped 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT,' indicating it was part of a congressional inquiry.
People (6)
| Name | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Gfoeller | Speaker |
Likely Michael Gfoeller; discusses Saudi Arabia (KSA) economics, social welfare costs, and the Arab Spring.
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| Mehgan | Speaker |
Discusses energy independence and China's foreign policy. (Note: Name spelled 'Mehgan' in text, likely Meghan O'Sulli...
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| Bob Blackwill | Speaker |
Discusses US foreign policy, the 'Pivot to Asia', and instability in the Middle East.
|
| TJP | Mentioned |
Referenced in 'TJP Summary: see write up'. Likely Thomas J. Pritzker.
|
| Bander | Mentioned |
Referenced regarding the realignment of the KSA national security team (Likely Prince Bandar bin Sultan).
|
| Mubarak | Mentioned |
Former Egyptian President, described as being 'in a cage'.
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Organizations (4)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| KSA |
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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| ME |
Middle East (Region)
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| AQ |
Al Qaeda
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| House Oversight Committee |
Source of the document (Footer stamp)
|
Timeline (1 events)
Circa 2011-2012
Strategic policy discussion regarding the Middle East, Arab Spring, and US Foreign Policy.
Unknown (Likely US-based think tank or policy meeting)
Locations (8)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
|
Mentioned regarding oil capacity and fragmentation
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Mentioned regarding intervention policy
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Mentioned regarding nukes
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Mentioned regarding Mubarak and anti-US government
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Described as disintegrating
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Described as at serious risk
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Mentioned in geopolitical context
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Mentioned in context of US 'Pivot to Asia'
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Relationships (2)
Both appear in the same meeting minutes/transcript regarding US Policy.
Key Quotes (5)
"KSA’s response to Arab Spring was to double the pay of everyone in the military."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025809.jpg
Quote #1
"Arabs have already translated “no taxation without representation”."Source
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Quote #2
"Arab Spring will come to KSA."Source
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Quote #3
"Pivot to Asia does not relieve us of serious interests we have in ME."Source
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Quote #4
"Israel – at more serious risk than in living memory"Source
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Quote #5
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (1,944 characters)
spare capacity (Iraq is trying to develop same); 4. Who has strategic influence over ME oil will matter; 5. Oil and global GDP are connected. In some ways, our energy policy may become more difficult. One big question is whether China will continue their policy of non-intervention in internal affairs of other countries (e.g. KSA goes Islamic). KSA’s response to Arab Spring was to double the pay of everyone in the military.
Gfoeller. KSA social welfare was $20/bbl per year, now $85/bbl, projected at $300/bbl in 2030. This means they will have to go to taxes and that will trigger social reaction. Arabs have already translated “no taxation without representation”. Major political shifts are occurring and major financial stresses are predictable. Free health care and education are untouchable. Arab Spring will come to KSA. AQ was easy to fight because you could identify bad guys and kill them. Could fight their ideology. Arab Spring has no leaders, no ideology. They want everything: money, power and vote. When will KSA get nukes? Realignment of national security team (Bander plus 2 other major changes suggest a major focus and potential big deals in the offing. Is this about Iran or Russia and china or Arab Spring or something else.
Mehgan : Power of being energy indep has consequences. Being a major consumer has leverage. KSA taking oil off market will still be meaningful. Will China retain its policy of non-interference in internal afairs when faced with Islamist take over of KSA?
US Policy Going Forward
TJP Summary: see write up
TJP Summary: see write up
Bob Blackwill:
Pivot to Asia does not relieve us of serious interests we have in ME. We announce a pivot to Asia when:
Iran – moving to nukes
Egypt – Mubarak is in a cage and new govt could be seriously anti-US
Syria – disintegrating
Iraq – could fragment
KSA – ripe for revolution
ME peace process is dead
Israel – at more serious risk than in living memory
Pivot to Asia does not relieve us of serious interests we have in ME. We announce a pivot to Asia when:
Iran – moving to nukes
Egypt – Mubarak is in a cage and new govt could be seriously anti-US
Syria – disintegrating
Iraq – could fragment
KSA – ripe for revolution
ME peace process is dead
Israel – at more serious risk than in living memory
13
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025809
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