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from Bahrain. Despite a small but energetic activist community,
Saudi Arabia has largely avoided protests during the Arab Spring,
something that the leadership credits to the popularity and
conciliatory efforts of King Abdullah. But there were a smattering of
small protests and a few clashes with security services in the Eastern
Province.
The regional troubles have come at a tricky moment domestically for
Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah, thought to be 86 years old, was
hospitalized in New York, receiving treatment for a back injury,
when the Arab protests began. The Crown Prince, Sultan bin Abdul
Aziz, is only slightly younger and is already thought to be too infirm
to become king. Third in line, Prince Nayaf bin Abdul Aziz, is
around 76 years old.
Viewing any move toward more democracy at home—at least on
anyone's terms but their own—as a threat to their regimes, the
regional superpowers have changed the discussion, observers say.
The same goes, they say, for the Bahraini government. "The problem
is a political one, but sectarianism is a winning card for them," says
Jasim Husain, a senior member of the Wefaq Shiite opposition party
in Bahrain.
Since March 14, the regional cold war has escalated. Kuwait expelled
several Iranian diplomats after it discovered and dismantled, it says,
an Iranian spy cell that was casing critical infrastructure and U.S.
military installations. Iran and Saudi Arabia are, uncharacteristically
and to some observers alarmingly, tossing direct threats at each other
across the Gulf. The Saudis, who recently negotiated a $60 billion
arms deal with the U.S. (the largest in American history), say that
later this year they will increase the size of their armed forces and
National Guard.
And recently the U.S. has joined in warning Iran after a trip to the
region by Defense Secretary Gates to patch up strained relations with

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