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are transferred to the private sector, particularly because they have lived under an intense propaganda campaign against the capitalist exploiters. They know that socialism leads to disaster, but they believe that capitalism is an activity of hungry wolves.

Threats

1. A substantial part of the policy of reconciliation between Obama and Raúl Castro depends on the lifting of the embargo. Although there is great pressure from the White House, and surveys showing that the majority of Americans want the sanctions to end, there are no guarantees that this will be achieved during this presidency. Neither can one predict what will happen with the relations between the two countries if the next elections are won by a Republican candidate. Two of the most prominent ones, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, have criticized President Obama for his new Cuban policy.
2. The repeal of the 1996 Helms-Burton is one of the key requirements for Cuba to be able to approach the IDB, the IMF, or the World Bank. Without that credit, which requires Cuba’s affiliation with these organizations, the Island will have no access to loans to rebuild the costly infrastructure that the country needs. It’s a very slow process that will take a great deal of time.
3. Cuba depends in large measures on subsidies from Venezuela, and Chavism is going through a very bad time, which could end up in its destruction and substitution with a government unfavorable to “the Cubans.” The disappearance of Chavism in Venezuela would be an economic and political catastrophe for Cuba. Today the popularity of Nicolás Maduro is less than 20%.
4. The political stability of the Cuban regime until now has depended on control by Fidel and Raúl Castro. Fidel just turned 89, and Raúl will be 84 in June. With them the generation of the revolution will come to an end, giving way to younger people, led by Raúl Castro’s chosen heir, Engineer Miguel Díaz-Canel, who is 55. What’s going to happen then? Could the regime transmit the authority within the Community single-party model without the old leaders who until now have lent shape and sense to the government. Will there arise other candidates with uncontrollable ambitions, presumably young military men, with the intention of taking command? Nobody knows. Nevertheless, Cuban history has been bloody when regimes reach their end. They are replaced by violence.
5. It will be very risky to invest in properties confiscated from their legitimate owners during the first years of the revolution. In both the United States and Spain there are organizations of those injured who are willing to go to court in defense of their rights, and who have hired lawyers to do just that. Originally the victims of the confiscations were North Americans or Spaniards, but over time Cuban-Americans and Hispano-Cubans have been added. Both the United States Congress and Senate and the Spanish Parliament have legislators with these origins.
6. What will probably happen will be something similar to the case of Nicaragua. Nicaraguan exiles, infinitely fewer in number and power than the Cuban-Americans, without congressmen in Washington with their origins, managed to condition American aid to the solution of the confiscations they had suffered during the first decade of the Sandinista government. What’s predictable is that the injured Americans, together with the Cuban-Americans, will manage to halt any American aid or benefit destined for Cuba until their property is returned to them or they are compensated for them.

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