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2.78 MB
Extraction Summary
0
People
3
Organizations
5
Locations
0
Events
2
Relationships
3
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Policy analysis / intelligence report
File Size:
2.78 MB
Summary
This document analyzes the complexities of Iran's nuclear program, noting that domestic public support and bureaucratic interests in Iran make abandoning the program unlikely. It argues that the international community should shift focus from a "grand deal" to incremental diplomatic restraints that mitigate the most dangerous aspects, such as high-grade enrichment, while acknowledging Iran's strategy of advancing its capabilities under the cover of civilian legality.
Organizations (3)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| International Atomic Energy Agency | ||
| IAEA | ||
| House Oversight Committee |
Locations (5)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
Relationships (2)
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Key Quotes (3)
"The growing public sentiment is that Iran has a right to acquire a nuclear capability."Source
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Quote #1
"Tehran seems to have conceived an ingenious path to nuclear advancement, one that involves increasing the size and sophistication of its civilian atomic apparatus to the point where it can quickly surge into a bomb."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_018198.jpg
Quote #2
"Washington should acknowledge the obvious, namely, that given Iran's gradualist approach, it"Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_018198.jpg
Quote #3
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (2,308 characters)
The international community is unlikely to concede to either more
sanctions or the use of force until Iran's objections are taken into full
consideration. As such, a grand deal that is supposed to provoke a moment
of clarity is likely to be enmeshed in the existing, protracted arms-control
process.
Another complication is the advent of public opinion and critical
constituencies in Iran devoted to the perpetuation of the program. The
growing public sentiment is that Iran has a right to acquire a nuclear
capability. As the program matures, it is becoming a source of pride for a
citizenry accustomed to the revolution's setbacks and failures.
Also emerging is a bureaucratic and scientific establishment with its own
parochial considerations for sustaining the nuclear investment. A clerical
leadership that is dealing with a restive population and empowered
security services cannot easily dispense with its nuclear trump card.
All this suggests that the best means of addressing Iran's nuclear challenge
is to mitigate its most dangerous dimensions. The focus should remain on
Iran's high-grade enrichment and its underground nuclear facility nestled
in mountains outside Qom. Tehran seems to have conceived an ingenious
path to nuclear advancement, one that involves increasing the size and
sophistication of its civilian atomic apparatus to the point where it can
quickly surge into a bomb. While staying within the rules of the
International Atomic Energy Agency's inspection process, Iran is
essentially expanding its capabilities while shielding them under the
veneer of legality. Given the fact that much of civilian nuclear technology
can easily be misappropriated for military purposes, Iran can construct an
elaborate nuclear infrastructure while remaining within IAEA guidelines.
The diplomatic challenge is to derail this path to a nuclear weapon by
imposing significant restraints on its program. And this can still be done
through a process that proceeds incrementally and sequentially.
U.S. officials would be wise to get out of the crisis mode and put some
time back on the clock. The Iran issue always seems urgent, and yet
somehow there is always time to deal with it. Washington should
acknowledge the obvious, namely, that given Iran's gradualist approach, it
sanctions or the use of force until Iran's objections are taken into full
consideration. As such, a grand deal that is supposed to provoke a moment
of clarity is likely to be enmeshed in the existing, protracted arms-control
process.
Another complication is the advent of public opinion and critical
constituencies in Iran devoted to the perpetuation of the program. The
growing public sentiment is that Iran has a right to acquire a nuclear
capability. As the program matures, it is becoming a source of pride for a
citizenry accustomed to the revolution's setbacks and failures.
Also emerging is a bureaucratic and scientific establishment with its own
parochial considerations for sustaining the nuclear investment. A clerical
leadership that is dealing with a restive population and empowered
security services cannot easily dispense with its nuclear trump card.
All this suggests that the best means of addressing Iran's nuclear challenge
is to mitigate its most dangerous dimensions. The focus should remain on
Iran's high-grade enrichment and its underground nuclear facility nestled
in mountains outside Qom. Tehran seems to have conceived an ingenious
path to nuclear advancement, one that involves increasing the size and
sophistication of its civilian atomic apparatus to the point where it can
quickly surge into a bomb. While staying within the rules of the
International Atomic Energy Agency's inspection process, Iran is
essentially expanding its capabilities while shielding them under the
veneer of legality. Given the fact that much of civilian nuclear technology
can easily be misappropriated for military purposes, Iran can construct an
elaborate nuclear infrastructure while remaining within IAEA guidelines.
The diplomatic challenge is to derail this path to a nuclear weapon by
imposing significant restraints on its program. And this can still be done
through a process that proceeds incrementally and sequentially.
U.S. officials would be wise to get out of the crisis mode and put some
time back on the clock. The Iran issue always seems urgent, and yet
somehow there is always time to deal with it. Washington should
acknowledge the obvious, namely, that given Iran's gradualist approach, it
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_018198
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