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Laffer Associates
Game On [Updated 7/6/2016]

electorate’s response to this question reflects a consistent indicator over a long period of time: in fact, long enough for us to
get a sense of whether this measure is a reliable guide to help forecast election results (see Figure 4). It is:

In my paper “Senate Outlook” of October 2, 2014, I relied heavily on this Gallup question to arrive at my outlandish forecast of
a seven seat gain for the Republicans in that year’s Senate races. My forecast of a seven seat pickup was probably the most
optimistic forecast at the time for the Republicans. But, as it turned out, I was off by two! The Republicans actually picked up
nine seats—West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, Iowa, North Carolina and Colorado—and
lost none.

Figure 4
The Gallup “Are You Satisfied?” Survey
(Feb 2-5, 1979 through Feb 3-7, 2016)
[Chart Graph depicting satisfaction percentages from 1979-2016]
[Chart Labels: Reagan I, Reagan II, H. W. Bush, Clinton I, Clinton II, W. Bush I, W. Bush II, Obama I, Obama II]
[Y-axis: 0% to 100%]
[X-axis: Years 1979 through 2016]
In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this
time? NOTE: This chart shows "satisfied"
Source: Gallup

The predictive power of this Gallup poll’s “are you better off?” question since the election of 1980 is pretty impressive. Both of
Reagan elections were right in sync with Gallup’s poll survey at November of 1980 and November of 1984. Likewise, Bush
Senior’s election in November of 1988 was seen as Reagan’s third term and was foreseen by the Gallup poll question.

And then both Clinton elections were right in line with the survey results from the Gallup poll questions in November of 1992
and November of 1996.

Bush the younger’s election in 2000 is anomalous, but his reelection in 2004 is consistent with the measure as was McCain’s
(really it was Bush’s) defeat in November 2008. The 2012 election also appears contrary to the survey response to the poll
question. If this poll reestablishes its predictive power in 2016, Trump wins in a Reagan-like landslide.

IV. Primary Colors
While perhaps subtle, what happens in contested presidential primaries is also a harbinger of general elections. And if the
current Democratic and Republican primaries are accurate measures of voter enthusiasm, the Democrats are facing a tough
up-hill fight against Republicans to say the least.

Using only states with party primaries, i.e. not state caucuses, and only party primaries up to the time when Donald Trump
became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, which was following the May 3rd Indiana primary, there has been
a large increase in voter turnout for the Republicans in 2016 when compared to either 2008 or 2012. In fact, in the 28 state
primaries through May 3rd, the total number of Republicans who actually voted in those primaries has increased by 57.2% over
2008 and 67.1% over 2012 (see Table 1 on page 8). And, using unweighted state numbers, the 2016 Republican primary

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