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The Washington Institute

Year of Decision: U.S. Policy toward Iran in
2013

James F. Jeffrey and Thomas Pickering

February 12, 2013 -- On February 7, 2013, James F. Jeffrey and Thomas
Pickering addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute.
Ambassador Jeffrey, a former assistant to the president and deputy
national security advisor, is author of the new Institute study Moving to
Decision: U.S. Policy toward Iran. Ambassador Pickering served in
numerous key posts at home and abroad over a five-decade career,
including undersecretary of state for political affairs. The following is a
rapporteur's summary of their remarks.

JAMES F. JEFFREY

The move to decision on Iran is the most pressing and dangerous issue on
the U.S. and international agenda in 2013. The year ahead will largely
define the longstanding struggle between Washington and Tehran, and the
considerable stakes involved make it absolutely crucial that a swift and
decisive resolution be achieved. Regardless of the outcome of the nuclear
issue, however, Iran will continue to present a long-term challenge to the
United States because of clashing ideologies, conflicting foreign policy
goals, and Iran's claim to regional hegemony.

There are four likely outcomes to the nuclear issue: a unilateral Iranian
decision to halt or dramatically slow its progress toward a nuclear weapon;
a negotiated outcome, whether through the P5+1 (i.e., the five permanent
members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) or bilateral
negotiations; a military strike, as threatened by President Obama and
Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu; and an explicit or implicit
shift to containment, indicating that Washington would be prepared to
coexist with a nuclear-armed Iran.

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