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Others suspect that Iran is waiting to see
how President Obama’s new national
security team – with Kerry as secretary of
state, Chuck Hagel as secretary of
defense, and John Brennan at the Central
Intelligence Agency – will shape
Obama’s stance at any talks.
In Washington, some would argue there’s
a growing consensus, at the level of think
tanks, Iran experts, and other analysts,
that a preliminary, first-round deal,
including “shop, ship, and shut,” might
work, if in response the P5+1 could lift
some of the economic sanctions on Iran
and agree to limited Iranian enrichment.
Perhaps the best-case scenario is the
possibility that there are ongoing, secret
and back-channel talks between
Washington and Tehran. Nothing along
those lines has leaked and there is no
indication of this, yet. But in advance of
the first round of Iran-P5+1 talks in
Vienna in 2009, the United States and
Iran did indeed engage in quiet, behind-
the-scenes diplomacy.
In fact, of course, any sanctions relief for
Iran will occur slowly and step-by-step,
not all at once, in parallel with steps
taken by Iran and openness to more
intrusive inspections and oversight by the
IAEA.
But it’s certainly not helpful that in early
January yet another round of unilateral

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