HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025304.jpg

Laffer Associates
Game On [Updated 7/6/2016]

Table 2
Primaries Following May 3rd

[Table 2 Columns: Republican Primary Turn Out (2008, 2012, 2016), % Increase 2016 from 2008, % Increase 2016 from 2012, Democrat Primary Turn Out (2008, 2016), % Increase 2016 from 2008, Democrat Advantage 2008**, Democrat Advantage 2016**]

Nebraska | 136,648 | 185,402 | 197,430 | 44.5% | 6.5% | N/A | Caucus | N/A | N/A | N/A
West Virginia | Caucus | 112,416 | 202,880 | N/A | 80.5% | 456,282 | 241,016 | -47.2% | N/A | 38,136
Kentucky | Caucus | Caucus | Caucus | N/A | N/A | 701,768 | 454,573 | -35.2% | N/A | N/A
Oregon | 353,476 | 287,955 | 408,937 | 15.7% | 42.0% | 641,499 | 641,595 | 0.0% | 288,023 | 232,658
Washington | 529,932 | Caucus | 608,128 | 14.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A
California | 2,932,812 | 1,924,970 | 2,162,810 | -26.3% | 12.4% | 5,066,992 | 4,966,115 | -2.0% | 2,134,180 | 2,803,305
Montana | 95,730 | 140,457 | 156,888 | 63.9% | 11.7% | 273,793 | 126,376 | -53.8% | 178,063 | (30,512)
New Jersey | 566,201 | 231,465 | 443,724 | -21.6% | 91.7% | 1,141,199 | 877,496 | -23.1% | 574,998 | 433,772
New Mexico | 110,939 | 92,930 | 104,627 | -5.7% | 12.6% | Caucus | 216,075 | N/A | N/A | 111,448
South Dakota | 60,964 | 58,292 | 66,879 | 9.7% | 14.7% | 97,797 | 53,006 | -45.8% | 36,833 | (13,873)
Total Votes* | 4,256,770 | 2,921,471 | 3,541,295 | -16.8% | 21.2% | | | -12.2% | 3,212,097 | 3,425,350
EW % Change | | | | 11.9% | 34.0% | | | -29.6% | |

*Total Votes are only summed for states that held primaries in 2008, 2012 & 2016
**Democrat Advantage is summed only for states that have had both a Republican and Democrat primary in 2016

While caucus numbers are influenced by a number of factors other than voter turnout and electorate preferences, their implications are little different from those of the primary states.

Again these results have to be concerning for Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Table 3
Caucuses and Mixed Caucuses/Primaries Completed as of May 3rd

[Table 3 Columns: Republican Caucus Turn Out (2008, 2012, 2016), % Increase 2016 from 2008, % Increase 2016 from 2012, Democrat Caucus Turn Out (2008, 2016), % Increase 2016 from 2008, Democrat Advantage 2008**, Democrat Advantage 2016**]

Alaska | 15,000 | 14,135 | 21,930 | 46.2% | 55.1% | 8,621 | 10,600 | 23.0% | (6,379) | (11,330)
Colorado | 65,400 | 66,027 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 120,001 | 123,508 | 2.9% | 54,601 | N/A
Hawaii | N/A | 10,228 | 13,377 | N/A | 30.8% | 37,426 | 33,716 | -9.9% | N/A | 20,339
Idaho | Primary | 44,672 | Primary | N/A | N/A | 21,224 | 23,884 | 12.5% | N/A | N/A
Iowa | 118,696 | 121,354 | 186,874 | 57.4% | 54.0% | 236,000 | 171,109 | -27.5% | 117,304 | (15,765)
Kansas | 19,432 | 29,857 | 73,116 | 276.3% | 144.9% | 37,089 | 40,000 | 7.8% | 17,657 | (33,116)
Kentucky | 205,226 | 176,160 | 229,667 | 11.9% | 30.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A
Maine | 5,338 | 5,814 | 18,650 | 249.4% | 220.8% | 44,670 | 46,000 | 3.0% | 39,332 | 27,350
Minnesota | 62,828 | 48,916 | 114,245 | 81.8% | 133.6% | 214,066 | 207,109 | -3.2% | 151,238 | 92,864
Nebraska | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 38,670 | 33,460 | -13.5% | N/A | N/A
Nevada | 44,315 | 32,894 | 75,216 | 69.7% | 128.7% | 117,559 | 84,000 | -28.5% | 73,244 | 8,784
Utah | Primary | Primary | 177,204 | N/A | N/A | Primary | 77,344 | N/A | N/A | (99,860)
Wyoming | 1,200 | 1,308 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 8,753 | 7,000 | -20.0% | 7,553 | N/A
Total Votes* | 470,835 | 429,130 | 719,698 | 52.9% | 67.7% | 884,079 | 780,386 | -11.7% | 454,550 | (10,734)
EW % Change | | | | 113.3% | 99.8% | | | -4.9% | |

*Total Votes are summed only for states that held caucuses in 2008, 2012 and 2016
**Democrat Advantage is only summed for states that have had both a Republican and Democrat caucus in 2016

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